izindaba

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwe-5G kushintshile kusuka ekutshalweni kwezimali okuqhutshwa yinkampani yenethiwekhi kuya ekutshalweni kwezimali okuqhutshwa abathengi, ngokugxila kubaqhubi, abahlinzeki bemishini abakhulu, ukuxhumana okubonakalayo kanye ne-RCS nezinye izingxenye zamathuba okutshala izimali.Kulindeleke ukuthi inani eliphelele lokwakhiwa kwe-5G ngonyaka we-21 lizoba phakathi kweziteshi eziyizigidi ezingu-1 nezingu-1.1, futhi inani eliphelele lemali esetshenziswayo yonyaka yama-opharetha amathathu amakhulu + umsakazo nethelevishini kulindeleke ukuthi ibe cishe ku-400 billion yuan.Ama-opharetha amathathu amakhulu kulindeleke ukuthi aphume enkathini yengcindezi yokushintshashintsha kwezizukulwane, futhi asesimweni sokucindezeleka emhlabeni wonke ngokombono wokulinganisa.Umphakeli omkhulu wezinto zokusebenza kuseyinjongo yokutshalwa kwezimali okuthandwayo kwe-5G okwamanje.Kunconywa ukuthi unake imodyuli yedijithali yedijithali kanye nomholi we-optical chip ngaphansi komnotho oqhubekayo ophakeme wemakethe yokuxhumana ye-optical.Izinhlelo zokusebenza namaseva e-5G kusesesikhathini sokukhuliswa.Sizonaka amathuba okutshalwa kwezimali abahlinzeki besevisi ye-RCS yemvelo elethwa ukuthengiswa okuphelele kwemilayezo ye-5G.

21 Imakethe yekhompyutha yamafu yaseChina isewunyaka omkhulu, inethemba ngengqalasizinda yamafu namathuba okutshala imali kwe-SaaS.

1) IaaS: Abathengisi bamafu abakhulu bayaqhubeka nokwenyusa izindleko ezinkulu, nge-FAMGA's YoY 29% kanye ne-BAT's YoY 47% ngo-q3 2020. Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi unake abathengisi be-IaaS abayinhloko kanye nokukhulisa abathengisi abanezinzuzo zokuhlukanisa.

2) I-IDC: Imakethe ye-IDC YONKE e-China isesikhathini sokukhula okusheshayo, futhi i-CAGR kulindeleke ukuthi ibe cishe ngama-30% eminyakeni emithathu ezayo.Ukunwetshwa kwesikali kuseyindlela eyisisekelo yokuthi abakhiqizi be-IDC bakhule.Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi unake abaholi beqembu lesithathu le-IDC emadolobheni esigaba sokuqala anezinzuzo zezinsiza.

3) Iseva: Ngemuva kokulungiswa kwempahla yesikhashana kwe-H2 ngo-2020, i-Q1 ngo-2021 kulindeleke ukuthi ilethe ihlobo lase-Indian futhi igcine izinga eliphezulu lokuchuma unyaka wonke.

4) I-SaaS: Abakhiqizi be-SaaS bezinga lebhizinisi laseShayina basesikhathini soshintsho esibucayi.Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bagqekeza amakhasimende aphezulu ngokuthuthukiswa okwenziwe ngokwezifiso, futhi banwebele kumakhasimende aphakathi, futhi bavule i-TAM ukuletha inzuzo nokuthuthukiswa kokulinganisa.

Imfundo yezimakethe yasekhaya ye-SaaS isikhulile, izinsiza zobuchwepheshe, ezinye izidingo zasekhaya kanye nokusekelwa kwenqubomgomo okuhlobene nakho kuyasebenza.

I-inthanethi yezinto ekufikeni kwemboni, gxila emathubeni okutshala avundlile amathathu aqondile.Ngaphansi kokuzwakala kathathu kokuhlanganiswa okujwayelekile, ukuhlanganiswa kobuchwepheshe kanye nokungena ehhovisi, I-inthanethi Yezinto isondela ekufikeni kwemboni kusuka kumqondo wemvelo kanye nokuma kwenqubomgomo.Iminyaka emihlanu ezayo kuzoba iminyaka emihlanu yokuthi i-inthanethi Yezinto yandise ukuxhumana.Abokuqala abazuzayo inzwa, i-chip, imojula, i-MCU, i-terminal kanye nabanye abakhiqizi bezingxenyekazi zekhompuyutha, ipulatifomu kanye nomjikelezo wokuhlengwa kwenani lesevisi kubambezelekile.Ezingeni lohlelo lokusebenza, gxila kunethiwekhi exhumene nemoto, ikhaya elihlakaniphile, i-inthanethi yesathelayithi nokunye ukubeka phambili okubalulekile kwesigcawu esikhulu sezinhlayiya, lapho imboni yazi kanjani, isikali sokuxhuma kanye nezinzuzo zobuhlakani bedatha zabadlali kuzoba abawinile abakhulu.

"I-Intelligence" iyintambo ebaluleke kakhulu emkhakheni wezimoto ezihlakaniphile, futhi ithuba eliyinhloko lise-supply chain. Silinganisela ukuthi isamba sobukhulu bemakethe yezimoto zabagibeli ekhuphukayo yaseChina izokhula isuka kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-200 ngo-2020 iye kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.8 ngo-2030, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esiyinhlanganisela esingu-25%.Isilinganiso sokunyuka kwamabhayisikili alethwe ubuhlakani sikhuphuke sisuka kumayuan ayi-10,000 saya kumayuan angama-70,000.Ngaphakathi komugqa oyinhloko wobuhlakani, sikholelwa ukuthi sidinga ukubamba amaza amathathu ukusuka ku-supply chain kuya ku-OEMS kuya ezinhlelweni zokusebenza namasevisi.Kugagasi lokuqala, sinethemba lokukhula kochungechunge lokunikezela ngempahla lwaseChina enkathini yobuhlakani bezimoto.Siphakamisa ukuthi kusukela ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokwanda komhlaba wonke, ukushintshwa kwendawo kanye nokushova kwesekethe entsha, kugxilwe kumjikelezo ohlukanisiwe onesikhala esikhulu sokwenyuka kanye nenani eliphakeme lamabhayisikili, okusungule umholi wemboni wezithiyo zokuncintisana.

1.ukululama kanye nombono

Imakethe ye-5G iyashintsha isuka ochungechungeni lwezimboni zemishini iye embonini ye-ICT esafufusa.Ukutshalwa kwezimali emkhakheni wezokuxhumana ngo-2020 kugcwele izinselelo.Inkomba yezokuxhumana (Shen wan) yehle ngo-8.33%, ukwehla okuphambili kwepuleti lonke.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukungezwani kwezohwebo okuqinile phakathi kweChina ne-United States kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwe-huawei embargo kuye kwakha ingcindezi ethile epuletini;Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngokuthengiswa kwe-5G, imakethe ibuyekeze okunye okulindelwe okuphezulu okwenziwe eminyakeni emibili edlule.

Noma kunjalo, sibona ezinye izingxenye zisebenza kahle kakhulu. Ukuxhumana okukhethekile kwezempi, imvamisa yomsakazo we-antenna, i-inthanethi yezinto inyuke ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwama-20;Amamojula we-Optical kanye nezingxenye, ukuxhumana kwesathelayithi nokuzulazula, i-cloud computing inyuke ngaphezu kuka-40%;Ividiyo yamafu ikhuphuke ngisho nangaphezu kuka-100%, ikhuphuke ngo-171% ngonyaka.Kusukela esikhundleni, isikhundla samanje sezikhungo zokuxhumana naso sisezingeni eliphansi ngokomlando.

Esikhathini se-3G, isilinganiso samasheya ezikhungo ze-Shenwan Communication siphakathi kuka-4% -5%, futhi esikhathini se-4G, isilinganiso samasheya ezikhungo ze-Shenwan Communication siphakathi kuka-3-4%, kuyilapho idatha yakamuva ye-Q3 ibonisa ukuthi ukuba namasheya isilinganiso sezikhungo zokuxhumana zaseShenwan singama-2.12% kuphela.

Sikholelwa ukuthi kokubili ukuhlukaniswa kwemakethe yamapuleti kanye nokwehliswa okuqhubekayo kwezikhundla zezikhungo kungcweti yezokuxhumana kubonisa inkambiso eyinhloso yokuhlanganiswa kwangaphandle, ukuhlukaniswa kwangaphakathi kanye nokudluliswa kwenani lenani lemboni yezokuxhumana.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-ICT kanye nezimboni zendabuko zihlala zihlangene, futhi i-ICT isibe ingqalasizinda yazo zonke izimboni, isheshisa inqubo yokwenza idijithali yazo zonke izimboni namabhizinisi.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imboni yezokuxhumana isiqalile ukuhlukana ibe izingxenye ezimbili, “endala” kanye “nentsha”, okuyiketango lemboni yemishini yokuxhumana evamile kanye nezingxenye ezintsha zomnotho ezifana ne-inthanethi Yezinto kanye ne-cloud computing.Umjikelezo “omdala” ngokwengxenye, ukukhula kwengxenye “okusha”.Imboni ekhiqiza izinto zokuxhumana zendabuko ikhombisa umjikelezo oqinile, ukusebenza kwayo kuthinteka kakhulu yizindleko ezinkulu zabaqhubi.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-inthanethi Yezinto kanye ne-cloud computing, okuhlukaniswa kancane kancane embonini yezokuxhumana, kusesigabeni sokukhula ngokushesha somjikelezo wempilo yazo futhi kuthintwa kancane kakhulu izinguquko ezijikelezayo zokusetshenziswa kwezimali ezinkulu zabaqhubi.Isizathu esibalulekile ukuthi imikhiqizo kanye nobuchwepheshe kulezi zimboni ezincane ziqala ukusabalala futhi zingene zisuka embonini yezokuxhumana ziye kwezinye izimboni, ngaleyo ndlela zivule indawo yemakethe entsha.

Kusukela kubude besikhathi eside, ukubukeza umjikelezo we-4G, ukufinyelela okuphakathi nendawo okuphansi kwenzuzo yeketango lezimboni ngokushintshana, futhi umjikelezo we-5G udluliswa kancane kancane usuka ochungechungeni lwemboni yabahlinzeki bemishini uye embonini ye-ICT yesizukulwane esisha.Umjikelezo wokutshala imali we-4G unokuhleleka okusobala, abakhiqizi bokuhlela inethiwekhi ephezulu njengoGuomai Technology, abakhiqizi be-antenna rf abanjengoWuhan Fangu bahole ekukhuphukeni, kwase kuba yi-ZTE, i-Fiberhome yezokuxhumana nabanye abahlinzeki bemishini eyinhloko, bese beya kuma-computing amafu aphansi, i-Intanethi. izinto nezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza ukuqubuka.Esikhathini se-5G, ukusatshalaliswa kwenani kochungechunge lwezimboni kudluliselwe embonini yabahlinzeki bemishini kuya embonini ye-ICT yesizukulwane esisha.Umholi we-IDC we-Baoxin Software kanye nomholi wemojuli ye-inthanethi Yezinto u-Yuyuan Communication babone ukwanda okukhulu.

Ngasikhathi sinye, u-2020 uzobona ukusheshisa ekwakhiweni kabusha kwe-ICT global supply chain ngenxa yomthelela wobhubhane kanye ne-geopolitics.Njengoba amazwe nezifunda zisabela ekuhlukaniseni nasekuphazamisekeni kwalolu bhubhane, uchungechunge lwezimboni ze-ICT, obeluzinzile isikhathi eside esikhathini esidlule, saphoqeleka ukuthi luzilungise.Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-5G kuhileleke ku-geopolitics, futhi izitayela ezimbili ze-"de-C" eholwa nguhulumeni wase-US kanye ne-"de-A" eholwa yizinkampani zaseShayina ziyahambisana.

Uma sibheka phambili, ukuhlanganiswa nokuhlukaniswa kwemboni kanye nokwakhiwa kabusha kwe-supply chain kuzoqhubeka, futhi ipuleti lokuxhumana lesikhathi esizayo lisazoba imakethe yesakhiwo.Ukwamukela amathrendi athile embonini nokukhula nezinkampani ezinkulu kuyindlela engcono kakhulu yokubhekana nokungaqiniseki okukhulu kwangaphandle.Ngokufika kokhetho lwase-US, umthelela oseceleni wezinto ezinkulu ezifana ne-geopolitics emakethe ye-5G kanye nomkhakha wezokuxhumana uye waba buthaka, kuyilapho ukuthambekela kwembonini ye-meso kanye nokuphathwa kwezinkampani ezincane kube amandla amakhulu anquma ukusebenza kwekusasa.Ngo-2021, ukucatshangelwa kokutshalwa kwezimali komkhakha wezokuxhumana kuzosuka phezulu kuye phansi kuye phezulu.Ngokugxila ku-5G, i-cloud computing kanye ne-inthanethi Yezinto, sinethemba lokuhle ngamathuba okutshala imali ezinkampanini ezihamba phambili ze-ICT ezinokulinganisa okuphansi nokukhula okuphezulu esigabeni ngasinye.

2. uguquko lokutshalwa kwezimali kwe-5G lusuka ekutshalweni kwezimali komsebenzisi olushayelwa ekusetshenzisweni komthengi, lugxile kubasebenzisi, abathengisi bemishini abakhulu, ukuxhumana okubonakalayo kanye namathuba okutshala imali kwe-RCS ezigabeni.
Sibona utshalomali olunetimu ye-5G luvela ngamagagasi amathathu.Igagasi lokuqala liqhutshwa ukutshalwa kwezimali komsebenzisi, okugxile enkambisweni nasekushintsheni kwesakhiwo sezindleko zemali yabasebenzisi;Igagasi lesibili liqhutshwa ukusetshenziswa kwabathengi, kugxilwe ekusatshalalisweni kwenani lokuhlinzekwa kwamatheminali aholayo kanye namabhizinisi e-ICP;Igagasi lesithathu lomkhankaso wokutshalwa kwezimali kwamabhizinisi nezimboni, ligxile embonini eyizinhlayiyana ezinkulu njenge-inthanethi, ukukhiqiza, amandla, amandla kanye nezinye izimboni inqubekelaphambili yedijithali kanye nokuhamba phambili kokutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi.

Umkhakha wamanje we-5G usegagasi lokuqala lokuqinisekiswa kokusebenza kanye negagasi lesibili loshintsho lokutshalwa kwezimali kwetimu.Igagasi lokuqala lemakethe yokuthengiswa kwemishini eqhutshwa utshalomali selisukile kulokho obekulindelekile laya esigabeni sokuqinisekisa ukusebenza, futhi igagasi lesibili lezicelo eziqhutshwa ukusetshenziswa kwabathengi kanye nemakethe yezinsizakalo seliqalile ukuzala.

Silindele ukuthi yonke inqubekelaphambili yokwakha ye-5G ngeke ithuthuke ngokushesha njengaleyo yenkathi ye-4G, kodwa isazoqhubeka ngokumaphakathi.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukwakhiwa kwaminyaka yonke kwe-5G kuzoba phakathi kweziteshi eziyizigidi ezingu-1 nezingu-1.1, okubalelwa ku-70% yenani lomhlaba wonke.Phakathi kwazo, ama-operators amathathu amakhulu kulindeleke ukuthi akhe iziteshi ezibalelwa ku-700,000, kanti iziteshi zomsakazo nezethelevishini kulindeleke ukuthi zakhe iziteshi ezingaba ngu-300,000-400,000.Kulindeleke ukuthi izindleko ezinkulu zabasebenzi abathathu abakhulu eminyakeni engama-21 zizogcina ukukhula okusesilinganisweni ngesisekelo seminyaka engama-20, izinga lokukhula licishe libe ngu-10%, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okusha kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-30 zomsakazo kanye nethelevishini, isamba semali yonyaka. izindleko zizoba cishe izigidigidi ezingama-400.

Uma sibheka phambili ku-2021, sinethemba elikhulu ngokusebenza kwama-opharetha, okokusebenza okuyinhloko, ukuxhumana okubonakalayo namanye amasegimenti unyaka wonke.Phakathi naleso sikhathi, siphakamisa ukuthi sinake amathuba okutshala izimali ku-RCS, isimo sokuqala esikhulu sokuhweba se-5G.

2.1 Gxila kuwo wonke amathuba okutshalwa kwezimali emkhakheni wabasebenzisi eminyakeni engama-21

Eminyakeni engu-21, opharetha kulindeleke ukuthi baphume esikhathini sokucindezela kokushintsha kwezizukulwane.Ebhekisela esikhathini sokushintshwa kwezizukulwane ze-2G-3G kanye ne-3G-4G, opharetha badinga ukwandisa ukusetshenziswa kwezimali ukuze kuthuthukiswe inethiwekhi.Phakathi naleso sikhathi, ukukhula kwezinsizakalo ezintsha kudinga isikhathi esithile sokutshala kanye neminyaka engu-1-2 yokusebenza isikhathi sokushintsha.Uma kuqhathaniswa nomjikelezo we-4G, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwe-5G kuzoba nesizotha, futhi izindleko ezinkulu zabasebenzi abathathu abakhulu ngeke zibone ukukhula okusheshayo kwesikhathi se-3 ne-4G eminyakeni engu-21.Ngokwe-Capex/Revenue, inani eliphakeme lingama-41% ku-3G kanye no-34% ku-4G, futhi silindele ukuthi libe cishe ku-27% kwabangu-21, kanye nezingcindezi zezindleko ezinkulu ezithulisiwe.

Amanani e-ARPU ama-opharetha amathathu amakhulu aqala ukuzinza futhi alulama.Njengamanje, izinga lokungena kweselula ye-5G lidlule i-70%, ukukhushulwa kwephakheji ye-5G kuyashesha nakakhulu kune-4G, ngisho noma kungekho bhizinisi elibulalayo le-5G 2C esikhathini esifushane, ukwehla kwenani le-ARPU kubuyiselwe emuva.

Mayelana nokulinganisa, amasheya angu-H o-opharetha abathathu abakhulu base-China asesimweni sokudangala komhlaba.Ngokuya nge-PE, PB kanye ne-EV/EBITDA, amasheya e-H ama-opharetha amathathu amakhulu asezingeni eliphansi kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nabanye opharetha abakhulu bomhlaba.Sikholelwa ukuthi isinqumo sakamuva se-NYSE sokususa ama-adR ama-opharetha amathathu amakhulu sizoba nomthelela olinganiselwe kakhulu ekusebenzeni kwabo kanye nokusebenza kwentengo yamasheya yesikhathi eside - ukuya kweyesikhathi eside.Njengamanje, ama-opharetha amathathu amakhulu, ikakhulukazi amanani amasheya e-H abukelwa phansi kakhulu, abatshalizimali bayelulekwa ukuthi bahlele ngenkuthalo.
2.2 Abathengisi bezinto eziyinhloko baseyizinjongo zokutshala ezithandwayo ze-5G ngo-2021
Ukuthi ukuvinjelwa kwe-huawei kuyasuswa noma cha, isabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-ZTE ngeke sishintshe.Ibhizinisi le-opharetha likaHuawei ngeke libonakale njengengozi enkulu yokunqamuka, imakethe yomhlaba wonke engenantambo kulindeleke ukuthi ibe phezulu ngamaphesenti angama-40 eminyakeni engama-20.Ngaphansi kokucatshangwa ukuthi i-embargo isendaweni isikhathi eside, isabelo semakethe kancane kancane sizobuyela emuva cishe ku-30% ngenxa yezinkinga zokuhlinzekwa kwama-chip.

Isabelo semakethe esilahlekile sikaHuawei phesheya sizokwenziwa kakhulu ngu-Ericsson, osabelo sakhe semakethe kulindeleke ukuthi sizinze cishe ngamaphesenti angama-27 eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, kanye noNokia.Isabelo semakethe sakwaNokia kulindeleke ukuthi sibuyele emuva cishe kumaphesenti ayi-15 ngenxa yokusebenza kabi kwayo eChina.

Uma sibhekisa enkathini ye-4G, silindele ukuthi ukweqa kwesabelo semakethe esingenantambo se-Samsung esigabeni sokuqala sokwakhiwa kwe-5G akumemeki.Ngemuva kuka-2020, njengoba isabelo semakethe esikhulu kunazo zonke (eNingizimu Korea, eNyakatho Melika, njll.) sincipha kancane kancane emakethe yomhlaba, isabelo semakethe sizokwehla ngokushesha sifinyelele ku-5%.I-Zte kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngumdayisi wemishini ophambili ngokukhula kwamasheya emakethe athile eminyakeni emithathu ezayo.Ingqikithi yokwakhiwa kwesiteshi se-5G yaseChina manje ifinyelela cishe amaphesenti angama-70 emakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-5G.

Isabelo semakethe seZte eChina kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule kancane ngemuva kweminyaka engama-21. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, sinethemba lokuthi inkampani izokwandisa isabelo sayo ngemva kokuba imakethe yaphesheya kwezilwandle i-5G ikhula kancane kancane eminyakeni engu-21, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi isabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke yenkampani sikhuphuke ngo-3-4PP njalo ngonyaka eminyakeni emithathu ezayo ( 21-23).Inkampani yakwaBullish ukuze ibe inkathi ye-5G yesabelo semakethe yemishini yomhlaba wonke elinganisa kabusha umzuzi omkhulu, abatshalizimali bayelulekwa ukuthi banake ngenkuthalo.

2.3 Imakethe yezokuxhumana ngombono iyaqhubeka nokudlondlobala.Kunconywa ukuthi unake i-digital communication optical module kanye nomholi we-optical chip

Ngaphansi kokuzwakala kwesidingo sesikhungo sedatha se-5G+, sikholelwa ukuthi imakethe yezokuxhumana ye-optical izogcina i-boom ephezulu ngokuzayo, futhi imakethe ye-optical module yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe elingaphezu kuka-15% eminyakeni engu-21-22. .

Ukukhula kwamamojula optical emakethe ye-telecom kuzoba nesizotha, futhi ukukhuphuka okuyinhloko kusazovela emakethe yesikhungo sedatha.Amamojula we-400G optical kulindeleke ukuthi athulwe ngokushesha eminyakeni emithathu ezayo.Ngokusho kwendlela ye-100G, ukuthunyelwa kulindeleke ukuthi kuphindwe kabili ngokuqhubekayo eminyakeni engu-21-22.Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi kugxilwe ezinkampanini eziholayo ezinenzuzo yokuqala, njenge-Zhongji Solechuang ne-Xinyisheng.

Ngaleso sikhathi, emkhakheni we-optical chip okhuphukayo, imakethe yamanje ye-optical communication chip icishe ibe ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-3.85, futhi izokhula ibe ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-8.85 ngo-2025, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esiyinhlanganisela seminyaka emi-5 esingu-18%.Esimweni sokunwetshwa kwezinga lemakethe kanye nokusheshisa ukushintshwa kwasekhaya, umholi we-optical chip wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi aphele, kuphakanyiswa ukuthi unake u-Xi 'an Yuanjie (ongekho ohlwini), u-Wuhan Sensitive core (ongafakiwe ohlwini), uShijia Photon, njll.

Izicelo ze-2.4 5G namaseva kusesesikhathini sokufukamela, futhi sizonaka ukuthuthukiswa kohwebo kwemiyalezo ye-5G

Izinhlelo zokusebenza ezisekelwe ku-5G nezinsizakalo zizoqala ukuhluma, futhi imilayezo ye-5G izoba isicelo sokuqala sesikali se-5G sokufika emhlabeni.Izindaba ze-5G wukunikezwa okunembile koshintsho ukusuka ku-4G kuya ku-5G.Njengomholi wemboni, opharetha banamathuba aphezulu kakhulu okukhuthaza impumelelo yebhizinisi labo.Ngokuzayo, ama-opharetha azoxhuma ku-ecosystem kanye nesevisi ngezinyathelo ezintathu, futhi ukubuka eduze kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuthaze indawo yemakethe ye-SMS yendabuko yesilinganiso esiyizigidigidi ezingama-40 kuya kweziyi-100;Ngokuzayo, ubuchwepheshe obusha be-ICT obufana nefu, idatha enkulu kanye ne-AI buzohlanganiswa.Izinsizakalo zemiyalezo ye-5G zabasebenzisi zizobona ukuguqulwa kwesikhulumi semiyalezo, futhi indawo yemakethe izofinyelela ku-300 billion yuan.Izindaba ze-5G kulindeleke ukuthi zibe neminyaka engu-21 i-Q1 ingaba ezentengiselwano ngokugcwele, gxila esincomweni samathuba okutshalwa kwezimali abahlinzeki besevisi yemvelo ye-RCS.

3. I-Cloud computing — U-2021 kusewunyaka we-cloud computing, ithemba nge-IDC nokuchuma kweseva

3.1 Ikhompuyutha yamafu yaseChinaI-ting isenkathini yentuthuko esheshayo yesikhathi eside

Uma kuqhathaniswa ne-United States, i-China isalele ngemuva kwe-United States iminyaka engaphezu kwemihlanu ngenxa yomehluko engqalasizinda ye-IT, inqubomgomo yezimboni, imvelo yezomnotho kanye nesimo socwaningo lwezimboni.Kodwa-ke, i-China inendawo ehambisanayo yezimboni futhi isesikhathini sokuthuthuka okusheshayo:

1) Ingqalasizinda ye-IT iya ngokuya iphelela.Ngonyaka wezi-2014, inani lamachweba okufinyelela ku-inthanethi nge-broadband e-China lafinyelela ezigidini ezingama-405, i-H1 yafinyelela ezigidini ezingama-931 ngo-2020, futhi ingxenye yokufinyelela kwe-fiber optical inyuke isuka ku-40.4% ngowezi-2014 yaya kuma-92.1%;

2) Kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, ukukhula komnotho omkhulu waseShayina kuzinzile, ukukhula kwe-GDP kuzinzile ku-5% -10%.Nakuba i-Q1 yathinteka yilo bhubhane esikhathini esifushane kulo nyaka, ikwazile ukululama ngokushesha, ikhombisa ukuqina okuqinile futhi ibeka isisekelo sezomnotho se-Inthanethi kanye nemboni ye-cloud computing;

3) Ngo-2011, i-United States yathuthukisa ukuthuthukiswa kwe-cloud computing yaba isu likazwelonke.Ngo-2015, i-China yakhipha Imibono yoMkhandlu Wombuso mayelana Nokukhuthaza Ukuqamba Nokuthuthukiswa Kwe-cloud Computing kanye Nokukhuthaza Izinhlobo Ezintsha Zemboni Yolwazi ukuze kusheshiswe ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni;

4) U-Ali, uHuawei kanye namanye amabhizinisi bafunda ohlelweni oluhlanganisiwe oluvuthiwe lwemboni, inyuvesi kanye nocwaningo e-United States ukuhlola (u-Ali namanyuvesi asekhaya nakwamanye amazwe ukusungula ilabhorethri, uHuawei umemezele ukuthi eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo uzohlanganisa imiphakathi. futhi amanyuvesi atshale onjiniyela abayizigidi ezi-5, futhi atshale amadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.5 ekwakhiweni kwemvelo), ukwakha uhlelo lwemvelo olukhuthazayo.Ukukhuthaza ukuthengiswa kwemiphumela yocwaningo.

Ukujula kwe-inthanethi yeselula, ukuphindaphindwa kwesilinganiso esikhulu se-inthanethi Yezinto, kanye nokusheshisa ukuguqulwa kwedijithali kwamabhizinisi kuzoqhubeka nokukhuthaza ukukhula kwe-cloud computing e-China.Ngo-Okthoba 2020, inani eliphelele labasebenzisi be-5G e-China selidlule ezigidini ezingu-200, nezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lanyanga zonke elifika kumaphesenti angu-29 kusukela ngoFebhuwari.Ukuthunyelwa kwefoni ephathekayo ye-5G kuyaqhubeka nokukhula, amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-16.76 athunyelwa ngo-Okthoba, izinga lokungena selifinyelele ku-64%, futhi ngasekupheleni kuka-Okthoba, uHuawei no-Apple baqala amamodeli amasha ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthunyelwa kwefoni ye-5G kanye nezinga lokungena kulindeleke ukuthi ngcono nakakhulu.

Kulo nyaka, lolu bhubhane lusheshise ukujula kwe-Intanethi yeselula, isidingo sabathengi sikude kakhulu nenani eliphakeme.NgoMashi, umthamo wokufinyelela ku-inthanethi kamakhalekhukhwini ube ngu-25.6 billion GB.Nakuba kube nokwehla okwalandela, ukuthambekela kokukhula okusheshayo okuphelele kwahlala kungashintshile.Sikholelwa ukuthi ihhovisi eliku-inthanethi, ezokuzijabulisa zamukelwe kabanzi umphakathi, konga izindleko zemfundo zabasebenzisi bokugcina.Nakuba ukusetshenziswa kwamanje kwethrafikhi yabathengi kugxile kumasevisi evidiyo, ezitolo, nasezindleleni zokuphila, sikholelwa ukuthi kuze kuqhume ezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza ezibulalayo (imidlalo ye-VR/AR, njll.), ukusetshenziswa kwethrafikhi kuzohlala ezindaweni ezifana nevidiyo ye-HD.

Ngasikhathi sinye, amanethiwekhi e-5G acindezela i-inthanethi yezinto ukuze kukale ukuphindaphinda.I-China ihamba phambili emhlabeni wonke ekwakhiweni kwe-5G, sekuqediwe iziteshi ze-5G ezingu-718,000, ezithatha cishe amaphesenti angu-70 engqikithi yomhlaba.Inethiwekhi ye-5G enomkhawulokudonsa omkhulu, i-latency ephansi kanye nokuxhumana okubanzi isiqalile ukudlala indima ezimbonini nezimboni zokukhiqiza, iphusha i-inthanethi Yezinto ukuze ilinganise ukuphindaphinda.Ngo-2020, inani lokuxhunywa kwe-inthanethi Yezinto e-China kubikezelwa ukuthi lizodlula izigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7, okuzoletha ukuqhuma kwethrafikhi yedatha esikhathini esizayo futhi kukhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa komkhakha we-cloud computing.

Ukuguqulwa kwedijithali kwebhizinisi kusalokhu kungumshayeli omkhulu wokukhula kwesidingo sekhompuyutha yamafu. Uma kuqhathaniswa namazwe athuthukile njenge-United States, izinkampani zaseShayina zinezinga eliphansi lokufinyelela amafu, ebelingamaphesenti angama-38 kuphela ngo-2018, uma liqhathaniswa namaphesenti angama-80 e-United States.Njengoba ohulumeni namabhizinisi behlisa izindleko futhi bakhulisa ukusebenza kahle ngefu, izimfuno ezintsha zedijithali ezivela kohulumeni namabhizinisi ziyaqhubeka nokuvela.

Lezi zinto ezingenhla zenza i-cloud computing boom iqhubeke nokuthuthuka, ngo-2019 izinga lokukhula kwemakethe yamafu yomhlaba wonke lika-20.86%, izinga lokukhula laseChina lama-38.6%, izinga lokukhula lidlula kude izinga lamazwe ngamazwe, sikholelwa ukuthi iminyaka embalwa ezayo izoqhubeka ukugcina izinga lokukhula licishe libe ngama-30%.

3.2 IaaS: Abathengisi bamafu abakhulu bayaqhubeka nokukhulisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali enkulu, futhi ukukhula kwemboni kuqinisekiswa

Isakhiwo senkonzo yamafu yomphakathi sase-China sihlanekezelwe phesheya kwezilwandle, nengqalasizinda kuqala.Ifu lomphakathi lomhlaba wonke libuswa imodeli ye-SaaS, ebalwa ngaphezu kuka-60%.Kusukela ngo-2014, imakethe ye-IaaS e-China ikhule kakhulu, ibalwa ngaphansi kwama-40% emakethe yamafu yomphakathi ngaphezu kwama-60%.

Sikholelwa ukuthi ngenxa yegebe elikhulu phakathi kwengqalasizinda ye-IT yaseChina namazwe athuthukile njengeYurophu neMelika ekuqaleni, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda ye-IT kanye namafu kuyavumelaniswa.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-China okwamanje isesigabeni sokuqala sokuthuthukiswa kwe-cloud computing, futhi ukuhlelwa kwabakhiqizi bamafu sekuphuzile kakhulu.I-Amazon yethula i-cloud computing ngo-2006, futhi i-Alibaba yasungula ngokusemthethweni i-cloud Computing Co., LTD ngo-2009. Amabhizinisi amafu aseShayina ikakhulukazi izinkampani ze-inthanethi, ajwayele ukwenza isofthiwe ngokwazo futhi awathengi amasevisi e-SaaS.Esikhathini esifushane, isikali se-IaaS sikhula ngokushesha, inkambu ye-IaaS iqinisekile futhi kunamathuba acebile okutshala izimali.Ngokuthuthukiswa kokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda, izinga lokukhula kwe-SaaS lizokhula ngokushesha.

Isabelo sabathengisi be-IaaS abaholayo basekhaya nabangaphandle banyukile, futhi iphethini yamafu omphakathi yabekwa phakathi kakhulu.Ngenxa yezindleko ezinkulu zekhephithali kanye nezindleko zocwaningo nentuthuko zebhizinisi le-IaaS, umphumela wezemvelo nezikali ubalulekile.Isabelo semakethe se-Amazon, i-Microsoft, i-Alibaba ne-Google senyuke sisuka ku-48.9% ngo-2015 saya ku-77.3% ngo-2015. Iphethini yabakhiqizi be-IaaS e-China ishintshile kakhulu, futhi i-Huawei inezinga lokukhula okusheshayo.Kusukela ngo-2015 kuya ku-Q1 kulo nyaka, i-CR3 inyuke isuka ku-51.6% yaya ku-70.7%.Sikholelwa ukuthi imakethe enkulu ye-IaaS e-China izozinza futhi igxile esikhathini esizayo.Ngaphandle kwezinzuzo ezihlukene zokuncintisana, isabelo sabakhiqizi abancane sizochithwa abakhiqizi abakhulu.Kodwa-ke, amakhasimende angezansi ane-hybrid cloud, ukuthunyelwa kwamafu amaningi, ibhalansi yabahlinzeki nezinye izidingo, futhi abakhiqizi abancane abanezinzuzo ezihlukene zokuncintisana basenendawo yokusinda esikhathini esizayo.Kunconywa ukuthi unake i-Jinshanyun, njll.

Sincoma ukugxila emathubeni okukhula okuqhubekayo kubathengisi abaphezulu be-IaaS. Ukukhula kwemali engenayo yabathengisi bamafu emhlabeni wonke ngekota engaphezu kuka-20% unyaka nonyaka, ukukhula kukonke kwemboni kunamandla.U-Tencent akazange adalule idatha yekota ngokuhlukana, kodwa umbiko wezimali weminyaka engu-19 wembula imali engenayo yebhizinisi lamafu engaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-17 zamayuan, izinga lokukhula lidlula isilinganiso sembonini.Uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhula kwemali engenayo yabakhiqizi abakhulu bamafu e-China nase-United States, izinga lokukhula le-Alibaba Cloud Q3 libalulekile.Izuza ekuguqulweni kwedijithali, ikakhulukazi ukukhula okusheshayo kwe-inthanethi, ezezimali, ukudayisa nezinye izixazululo zemboni, imali engenayo yekota ye-Alibaba Cloud ifinyelele kumayuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-14.9, ikhuphuke ngo-60% unyaka nonyaka (i-Amazon Cloud ikhule ngo-29%, iMicrosoft Azure 48%).Imakethe yamafu yomphakathi yaseChina ikhula ngokushesha, uhulumeni kanye namabhizinisi endabuko asesikhathini soshintsho lwedijithali, futhi abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.4 bakha imakethe enkulu yabathengi, ividiyo, ukusakazwa bukhoma, izimboni ezintsha kanye nezinye izimboni zithuthuka ngokushesha.Ngokwenzeka kwamabhizinisi e-inthanethi asekhaya ahamba olwandle, sahlulela ukuthi abakhiqizi bezinsiza zamafu basekhaya basenendawo ebanzi yokwenza ngcono isabelo semakethe yomhlaba.

Mayelana nezindleko ezinkulu, ukusetshenziswa kwezimali ezinkulu zabakhiqizi bamafu ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe kuphenduke kwaba kuhle ngemuva kwe-Q4, okubonisa ukuthi imboni ye-cloud computing isesezingeni eliphezulu.Ku-Q3 2020Q3, ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kwe-US FAMGA kukhuphuke ngo-29% unyaka nonyaka, kanti ukusetshenziswa kwemali ye-BAT yaseShayina kukhuphuke ngo-47% unyaka nonyaka.Isidingo samasevisi wamafu aphansi komfula yisona sizathu esiyinhloko sezindleko ezinkulu zabathengisi bamafu.Isidingo semakethe ye-IaaS sisaqinile, ngakho-ke ukutshalwa kwezimali okuhlobene ne-IaaS kusazoba kumjikelezo webhizinisi ophezulu esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside.

3.3 I-IDC: Ukungalingani phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kwezifunda kanye nesidingo kuzoba khona isikhathi eside.Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi unake inkampani yesithathu enezinsiza ezibalulekile emadolobheni esigaba sokuqala

Njengengqalasizinda yemboni yekhompuyutha yamafu, i-IDC iyazuza ekuthuthukisweni kwemboni esezansi nomfula futhi isesikhathini sokukhula okusheshayo.Siyahlulela ukuthi imboni isengakwazi ukugcina izinga lokukhula elilinganiselwa ku-30% eminyakeni emithathu ezayo.Ukuthuthukiswa kwamabhizinisi e-inthanethi ne-cloud computing kukhuphule isidingo sokugcinwa kwedatha nekhompyutha.Ngokukhula nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe obusha obufana ne-5G, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye ne-inthanethi Yezinto, isidingo sesikhathi esizayo sizokwandisa indawo yemakethe.Ukwengeza, izinqubomgomo ezintsha zengqalasizinda ziyaqhubeka nokukhipha okuhle.E-United States, i-IDC igxile kakhulu ekwakhiweni kabusha nasekukhuliseni, kuyilapho eChina, isagxile ekwakhiweni okusha.Ngenxa yokuqalisa sekwephuzile nokuthuthuka ngokushesha, i-China izogcina izinga lokukhula elingu-25-30% esikhathini esizayo, kanti isilinganiso sayo sezimboni kulindeleke ukuthi siphindeke kabili sisuka kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-156.2 ngowezi-2019 siye kumayuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-320.1.

Ngokombono wokwenziwa kwedatha, isitokwe samanje se-IDC e-China sisemuva kakhulu.Njengomkhiqizi omkhulu wedatha emhlabeni, i-China ikhiqiza ngaphezu kuka-23% wedatha yomhlaba minyaka yonke.Kodwa-ke, isitokwe sezikhungo ezinkulu zedatha singama-8% kuphela omhlaba, futhi izinqolobane azanele.Ngokukhula okusheshayo okuqhubekayo kokukhiqizwa kwedatha eShayina, imboni ye-IDC inendawo enkulu yokukhula.Nakuba abakhiqizi be-IDC bamanje besesigabeni sokuqhwagwa komhlaba kanye nokusheshisa ukwakhiwa, ukunikezwa okusebenzayo kwangempela kungase kungahlangabezani nesidingo semakethe esizayo.Amabhizinisi anezidingo eziphezulu zokubambezeleka nokuphepha kusadingeka abekwe emadolobheni asezingeni lokuqala, futhi izinqubomgomo emadolobheni esigaba sokuqala ziyaqiniswa.Noma ngabe ukuhlinzekwa kwamadolobha esigaba sesibili kukhuphuka, ukungalingani phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kwezifunda kanye nesidingo kusazoba khona isikhathi eside.

Siphakamisa ukuthi unake abathengisi be-IDC benkampani yangaphandle abanezinzuzo emhlabeni kanye nezinsiza zikagesi ophehlwa ngamanzi emadolobheni asezingeni lokuqala.Okwamanje, abakhiqizi be-IDC benkampani yangaphandle bathatha isabelo semakethe esikhulu emhlabeni wonke, kuyilapho imboni ye-IDC yaseChina isabuswa abaqhubi bezingcingo, ngezinzuzo zakuqala ezinsizeni nasezikalini.Kodwa-ke, ukuthuthukiswa kwe-cloud computing kanye nemboni ye-inthanethi kubeka phambili izidingo eziphakeme ekusebenzeni nasekusetshenzisweni kwamandla kwezikhungo zedatha, futhi amadolobha asezingeni lokuqala njenge-Beijing ne-Shanghai akhawulela inkomba yokusetshenziswa kwamandla kagesi, futhi adinga i-PUE yezikhungo zedatha entsha ukuthi ibe ngaphansi kuka-1.3 noma 1.4.Abathengisi be-IDC benkampani yangaphandle banezinzuzo ngesivinini sokuphendula kwamakhasimende, ukwenza ngokwezifiso, ukusebenza nokuphathwa kwezindleko.Isabelo semakethe sabasebenzi baseShayina emkhakheni we-IDC sehlile sisuka ku-52.4% ngowezi-2017 saya ku-49.5%, futhi sinquma ukuthi isabelo sabakhiqizi be-IDC bezinkampani zangaphandle sizokhula nakakhulu.

Ukunwetshwa kwesikali kuseyindlela eyisisekelo yokuthi abakhiqizi be-IDC bakhule, futhi ukugxila ezimakethe kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke.Ngemuva kocwaningo lochungechunge lwemboni, sithole ukuthi abakhiqizi be-IDC banethemba ngesidingo semakethe eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, futhi bancamela isu lokukhulisa ngokushesha eminyakeni yakamuva ukuze bathole ukukhula kwemali engenayo.Imboni ye-IDC idinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu ezimpahleni.Okwamanje, kunezinkulungwane ABAKHIQIZI basekhaya abanamalayisense e-IDC, futhi ingxenye ngayinye yabakhiqizi be-IDC benkampani yangaphandle ingaphansi kuka-5%, okwenza imakethe ihlakazeke uma kuqhathaniswa.U-Equinix, umholi womhlaba, wakhulela ngokushesha emakethe yomhlaba ngokuthola i-The UK's Telecity Group ngo-2015 kanye nebhizinisi le-IDC le-Verizon ngo-2017. Sengeza inani lezindleko zekhephithali kanye nesikali se-m&a njengesamba sokufakwayo kokwakha.Ngo-2020 H1, isikali esiqoqiwe se-m&a se-Equinix sifinyelela ku-48%, kuyilapho isikali se-m&a somholi wasekhaya i-GANGUO Idatha yenza kuphela u-14.3%.Ngokomgudu wokuthuthukisa we-Equinix, abakhiqizi be-IDC basekhaya bangasheshisa ukutholwa ukuze banwebe amandla okuvala ukukhula kwesidingo okungenakuhlangatshezwana nayo ngezindlela zokuzakhela nezindlela zokuqashisa.Ukwenyuka kokugxila ezimakethe kuzozuzisa idatha ye-GDS, i-21vianet, i-Baoxin Software, inethiwekhi ye-Halo New kanye nabanye abakhiqizi.

3.4 Iseva: Ukuhlehla kwemakethe yesikhashana akushintshi okulindelwe yibhizinisi eliphezulu lesikhathi eside

Amaseva, njengezindawo zehadiwe eziyinhloko zokwakhiwa kwenethiwekhi, azuza ekukhuleni okusheshayo kwemboni yekhompyutha yamafu yaseChina.Ngokusho kwe-IDC, ngo-q3 2020Q3, ukukhula kwemali engenayo yemakethe yeseva yomhlaba kwehle kwaya ku-2.2% unyaka nonyaka, nokuthunyelwa kwehle kancane ngo-0.2%, kodwa imali engenayo yemakethe yeseva yaseChina ikhule ngo-14.2%, isalokhu ikhula ngokushesha.

Imali engenayo yabakhiqizi be-chip yeseva ekhuphukayo yehlile, futhi imali engenayo yomholi weseva u-Tiao Ulwazi yehle ku-Q3.Sikholelwa ukuthi isizathu esiyinhloko ukuqhubekela phambili kwesidingo se-Q3 ngenxa YOKUQHUBEKA kobhubhane lwe-Q2.Ukushintshashintsha kwenzuzo yekota eyodwa akushintshi imboni ye-cloud computing yesikhathi eside sokwahlulela kwamabhizinisi aphezulu.

Njengoba izindleko ezinkulu zamafu amakhulukazi ezikhula ngokushesha futhi zifuna ukuqina, sinquma ukuthi imboni ye-cloud computing isathuthuka ngo-2021. Ngokomlando, ama-cloud computing upcycles ahlala okungenani amakota ayisishiyagalombili.Ngemva kweminyaka engu-18 yokusetshenziswa kwemali eshisiwe yabakhiqizi abakhulu bamafu emhlabeni neminyaka engu-19 yokusungula, izindleko ezinkulu ze-DOMESTIC BAT ku-Q4 zihole ekubuyiseni ukukhula okuhle okungama-35% uma kuqhathaniswa nomhlaba eminyakeni engu-19.I-Q3, nakuba yehle ukusuka ku-Q2's izinga lokukhula eliphezulu lama-97%, yayisephezulu ngo-47% kunezinga lokukhula elingu-29% e-United States.Iseva yokulandelela ekhuphuka nomfula i-BMC chip nomkhiqizi we-Sinhua udalule idatha yemali engenayo yanyanga zonke, nakuba inkampani yaqala ukukhula okungekuhle kwengeniso ngo-Agasti, kodwa ibuyele ekukhuleni okuhle ngoNovemba, isibikezelo seminyaka engu-21 yemboni ye-cloud computing kusalindeleke ukuthi ilondoloze ukukhula okuphezulu.

Ngokuthengiswa kwe-5G endleleni, ukuqhuma kwethrafikhi yedatha kuzothuthukisa ukukhula emakethe yeseva.Ngokusho kweSouth Korea, abasebenzisi be-5G basebenzisa ithrafikhi ephindwe izikhathi ezingu-2.5 kumuntu ngamunye kunabasebenzisi be-4G. Inani labasebenzisi be-5G e-China liye lenyuka kancane kancane ngaphezu kwama-25% ngenyanga.Ngokusekelwe kokuhlangenwe nakho komlando, ukuthuthukiswa ngakunye kobuchwepheshe bokuxhumana kweselula kwenyusa i-DoU ngesilinganiso izikhathi eziyishumi, ngakho-ke kubikezelwa ukuthi i-DoU yabasebenzisi be-5G izofinyelela ku-50G/ngenyanga ngo-2025. I-5G commercial superimposed edge computing nezinye izimo ezintsha zizothuthukisa iseva. , isitoreji kanye nezinye izidingo zokukhula kwengqalasizinda ye-IT, kodwa nasekucutshungulweni kwedatha, izidingo zekhompuyutha ziphakeme, ikhompyutha ehlakaniphile, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nemikhiqizo yokuhlanganisa iseva izoba nendawo yemakethe eyengeziwe.Ngokusho kwedatha yesibikezelo se-IDC, usayizi wemakethe yeseva yomhlaba wonke uzocishe uphindwe kabili ukuya ku- $ 12 wezigidi ngo-2020 kanye nama- $ 21.33 wezigidi ngo-2025.

I-3.5 SaaS: i-catalysis yezinto eziningi, esikhathini esibucayi soshintsho, indawo yesakhiwo samanje

Ngosayizi wemakethe, imakethe yasekhaya ye-SaaS iyonke isala ngemuva kwe-US ngeminyaka emi-5-10.Ngo-2019, imali engenayo yebhizinisi lamafu ye-Salesforce yafinyelela kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-110.5, kanti usayizi wemakethe yemboni ye-SaaS yaseChina wawungama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-34.1 kuphela.Kepha ngenxa yokuthi imakethe yasekhaya ye-SaaS isesikhathini soguquko lwamafu, izinga lokukhula licishe liphindwe kabili kunelomhlaba wonke, ukukhula okusheshayo kuletha indawo ebanzi yentuthuko.

Imakethe ye-SaaS yaseChina ihlehle emuva ngenxa yezinto ezintathu ezibalulekile: okokuqala, izinga lokwaziswa kwasekhaya liphansi.I-United States yenze ukwakhiwa kolwazi nokuthandwa kwabantu amashumi eminyaka, kuyilapho isisekelo sokuqwashisa ngezimakethe zaseChina kanye nesisekelo solwazi ngokusobala sisalele ngemuva kweYurophu ne-United States, ukwakhiwa kolwazi kanye nokwakhiwa kwedijithali akuphelele, futhi amabhizinisi awakunaki ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kahle kokuphatha.okwesibili, Izinga layo lobuchwepheshe alanele, izwe lethu le-SaaS ibhizinisi liningi kodwa alilungile, izinga lobuchwepheshe lisalela ngemuva, ukuzinza komkhiqizo kubuthakathaka.Ekugcineni, ukungabikho kwamashaneli.Esikhathini sesofthiwe evamile, isimo sesiteshi sibaluleke kakhulu.Esikhathini se-SaaS, uhlelo lokubhalisa lunciphisa imali engenayo yokumaketha yesiteshi, futhi uhlelo lokuvuselela lunciphisa umuzwa wokuphepha wesiteshi, okuholela enhlosweni ephansi yokuphromotha yesiteshi, izindleko eziphezulu zokuthola amakhasimende kanye nokwanda kwezimakethe ezihamba kancane.Iziteshi zisewukumelana okuyinhloko nokukhuthazwa kwebhizinisi i-SaaS e-China.

Uma kuqhathaniswa ne-United States, abakhiqizi be-SaaS bezinga lebhizinisi laseShayina basesikhathini soshintsho esibucayi, nezinkomba ezihlukahlukene zezezimali nezamabhizinisi okufanele zithuthukiswe, futhi ukuthuthukiswa okwenziwe ngokwezifiso kuyiphuzu elibuhlungu.Amabhizinisi amakhulu e-China anezidingo eziphakeme zokuthuthukiswa komuntu siqu, futhi abakhiqizi be-SaaS badinga ukutshala izindleko eziphezulu ze-R&D futhi babe nomjikelezo omude wokuthuthuka.Uma umsebenzi wemikhiqizo efanayo uzowela emncintiswaneni wamanani, yehlisa inzuzo yenkampani.Amabhizinisi aseMelika anezinga eliphezulu lokumiswa komkhiqizo futhi kulula ukunweba i-TAM (Isamba Semakethe Esingamakheli).Okusho ukuthi, umthamo wemikhiqizo yasekuqaleni unganwetshwa kweminye imikhakha, uphahla lwamabhizinisi akhona lungaphulwa, indawo yokubamba iqhaza kweMakethe ingandiswa, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezindleko zangaphambili kungancishiswa, futhi inzuzo inamandla.Kodwa-ke, Ngokujulisa ukubambisana namabhizinisi amakhulu, abakhiqizi baseShayina be-SaaS bangenza lula futhi bahlele imikhiqizo yabo ngemva kokuqeda amaphrojekthi wokulinganisa, bese amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo angakhetha imisebenzi ethile ayidingayo, ukuze ukwanda komkhiqizo wesikhathi esizayo kusazoba mkhulu.

Nakuba kukhona igebe phakathi kweChina ne-United States, kodwa sikholelwa ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-SaaS yasekhaya sekufinyelele iphuzu lokushintshashintsha, okwamanje kuseyiphoyinti lokuhlela.Okokuqala, imfundo yemakethe yemboni ye-SaaS yasekhaya ivuthiwe, izinqolobane zobuchwepheshe, ezinye izidingo zasekhaya kanye nokusekelwa kwenqubomgomo efanele kuyasebenza.Ngemva kweminyaka ecishe ibe yishumi yokuduma kwemfundo, ukuqaphela kwamabhizinisi ulwazi kuye kwavela esigabeni esingajulile sezinto zephepha le-elekthronikhi kuya esidingweni sokwenziwa kwedijithali kwebhizinisi, okuhambisana nethuba lokushintshaniswa kwendawo.Okwesibili, amabhizinisi asekhaya akwa-SaaS ngokwawo athuthuka ngokushesha.Nakuba izinga lentuthuko lilincane uma kuqhathaniswa, kodwa i-kingdee, i-Ufida namanye amabhizinisi oguquko athembele ekuqondeni kwemboni yawo kanye nomthelela womkhiqizo, ayaqhubeka nokwandisa isabelo sawo semakethe.Kusukela ukungqubuzana kwezohwebo, umqondo wokulawula okuzimele e-China uya ngokuya usobala, ukuguqulwa kwamafu okumbondelayo kujula, sikholelwa ukuthi imodeli ye-SaaS yamabhizinisi esoftware yasekhaya ukunikeza ithuba lokudlula ijika, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-SaaS sekufinyelele inflection point.

Abahlinzeki bezinhlelo zama-software bendabuko, abakhiqizi be-SaaS abangosomabhizinisi kanye namabhizinisi e-inthanethi yibo ababambiqhaza abakhulu emakethe ye-SaaS yaseChina, abaqhudelanayo futhi babambisane.Ukubambisana kwezemvelo phakathi kwabakhiqizi be-inthanethi nabakhiqizi bezamabhizinisi kuvame kakhulu: njengamanje, abakhiqizi be-inthanethi bagxile kakhulu ebhizinisini lezinga le-IaaS ne-PaaS, ukuhlelwa kwethrekhi ye-SaaS kumbalwa, akukho mncintiswano wezinga elikhulu, embonini izinkambu eziqondile nezime mpo zebhizinisi (njenge imfundo, ukudayisa, i-CRM, ezezimali kanye nentela, njll.) Abakhiqizi be-inthanethi bahlanganiswe njengabakhi bezobuchwepheshe.Ukuncintisana phakathi kwabathengisi be-SaaS bebhizinisi nabathengisi be-software bendabuko abaguqulela ku-SaaS kuqondile kakhulu: amabhizinisi amakhulu anezinga eliphezulu lokungena kwesofthiwe yendabuko anokwethemba okuphezulu ku-kingdee, i-Yonyou nabanye abathengisi bendabuko, kodwa abathengisi bezamabhizinisi banezinzuzo kwezinye izingxenye, ngakho-ke kukhona futhi. ukubambisana noma ukuhlanganiswa kokutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokutholwayo.Isibonelo: Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwe-Kingdee International jabulela ukuthengiswa kwamakhasimende (CRM) kanye nobuchwepheshe beMyriad.Izinkampani ze-inthanethi ezinabathengisi be-software bendabuko ukuhlola izindlela zentuthuko, nokubambisana kwezemvelo: Abathengisi be-inthanethi banenzuzo yomgwaqo, ibhizinisi lesofthiwe yendabuko ligxila ekwenzeni ngokwezifiso okuphezulu imikhiqizo ye-SaaS, kodwa izinhlobo ezimbili zabahlanganyeli bemakethe zikhetha ukuba yihhovisi eliphakathi nendawo, ukunikeza ikhodi ephansi ayikho ikhodi. isiteji sokuthuthukiswa, ukukhuthaza ukujula nobubanzi bomkhiqizo, ukuqinisa ukwakhiwa kwemvelo.

I-TAM iyisici esibalulekile esithinta izinga lokulinganisa labakhiqizi besevisi ye-SaaS yebhizinisi, enquma ngokuqondile indawo yokukhula kwemali engenayo yesikhathi esizayo yamabhizinisi.NgokoMbiko Wokuthuthukiswa Kwamabhizinisi Amakhulu amahlanu AseShayina, iChina inenani elikhulu lamabhizinisi amancane nasafufusa.Kucatshangwa ukuthi amabhizinisi aseShayina azowamukela kangcono ifu ebhizinisini lawo, akhethe amathuluzi e-SaaS okuphathwa kwebhizinisi, anciphise izindleko futhi akhuphule ukusebenza kahle, futhi izinga lokungena lemodeli yokubhalisa lizokhuphuka ngokuzayo.

Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi izinga lokungena kwe-SaaS lezinye izinkampani zaseMelika selifinyelele ku-95% noma ngaphezulu, kulinganiselwa ukuthi i-TAM ingafinyelela ngaphezu kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-560 ngokusekelwe enanini leyunithi yamakhasimende ebhizinisi ahlolwe ochungechungeni lwezimboni.Futhi ngokwanda kwenani lamabhizinisi e-China, amandla okukhula esikalini semakethe yaseChina makhulu.Phakathi kwazo, amabhizinisi amakhulu anemali engenayo yonyaka engaphezu kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili anenani eliphezulu leyunithi yamakhasimende, kodwa inani lamabhizinisi lincane;Intengo yeyunithi yekhasimende lebhizinisi elincane namaphakathi iphansi, kodwa inani liningi.Ukhiye wabahlinzeki be-software ye-SaaS ukuze bathole ukukhula kwemali engenayo yesikhathi eside ukubamba amakhasimende okhalo, futhi inani lilonke le-ARPU lingathuthukiswa ngokugqekeza amakhasimende ebhizinisi amakhulu aphezulu.Isidingo samabhizinisi amakhulu semikhiqizo ye-SaaS asigcini nje emisebenzini elula efana ne-office automation kanye ne-electronization yebhizinisi, kodwa ukuhlanganisa kakhulu imikhiqizo nezinqubo zebhizinisi lebhizinisi, futhi ibe ngempela ithuluzi lokuphatha ibhizinisi.

Imakethe ye-SaaS yebhizinisi laseChina iphansi, futhi sikholelwa ukuthi abahlinzeki be-software ye-ERP yendabuko abaguqula ikhompuyutha yamafu banamandla amakhulu okukhula.Ngokwezibalo ze-IDC, amabhizinisi amahlanu aphezulu emakethe yebhizinisi i-SaaS e-China engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020 abalelwa ku-21.6% kuphela wemakethe.Imakethe ihlukaniswe futhi izinga lokugxila liphansi.Iphethini yokuncintisana ezimakethe zezicelo ezahlukene ihlukile, futhi yithuba elihle lokuhlela.

Sikholelwa ukuthi abakhiqizi bendabuko be-ERP esikhathini esibucayi sokuguqulwa kwekhompuyutha yamafu banamandla amakhulu okukhula.Isofthiwe yendabuko ye-ERP ye-yonyou, i-Kingdee namanye amabhizinisi inezinga eliphezulu lokungena kanye nokwethembana phakathi kwamabhizinisi amakhulu naphakathi nendawo, futhi iyinketho yokuqala yokwenziwa kwasendaweni.Sebenzisana eduze namabhizinisi amakhulu, ube nokuqonda okujulile kwenqubo yebhizinisi lamakhasimende, futhi ube nekhono lokubambisana namabhizinisi amakhulu, ulwazi lokuphatha lwamabhizinisi amakhulu ukuphindaphinda emabhizinisini amancane naphakathi, usize amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo uguquko lwedijithali. ;I-Kingdee kanye ne-Yonyou bakwisikhundla esiphezulu ezingxenyeni zemakethe ezinezinga eliphezulu lokumiswa kanye nezimakethe ezivamile uma kuqhathaniswa, njengezezimali nezinsiza zabantu, futhi banohlu oluphelele lwemikhiqizo.Banesikhala esikhulu semakethe sokubamba iqhaza kanye namandla okukhula okuphezulu.

Uma kuqhathaniswa ne-TAM, uphahla lwe-TAM lusobala kakhulu kubakhiqizi be-SaaS abahweba embonini yokuhlukanisa, kodwa abakhiqizi be-SaaS abahamba phambili emkhakheni wokuhlukanisa njengeMingyuan Cloud basengakwazi ukukhula ngokushesha ngosizo lwezinzuzo zomkhiqizo nesimo semboni, bese bethola okwengeziwe. ukubaluleka ngokweqile, nakho okufanele ukunakwa.I-Alibaba, i-Tencent nabanye abathengisi be-inthanethi bagxile kakhulu kwimakethe yengqalasizinda ye-IaaS ne-PaaS, futhi abaningi bathatha indima yabathengisi abahlanganisiwe emakethe ye-SaaS.

Ngokombono wokulinganisa, abahlinzeki besevisi base-China base-SaaS banendawo enkulu yokuthuthukiswa.Kunamabhizinisi asohlwini lwe-SaaS angaphezu kuka-70 e-United States, okuhlanganisa namanye anemali yemakethe engaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-100 zamadola.Yize izinkampani eziningi zaseShayina zingakafakwa ohlwini, yi-Yonyou kuphela, enye yezinkampani ezinkulu ezisohlwini, enenani elingaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-20 zamaRandi.Isilinganiso se-PS sezinkampani zaseMelika cishe izikhathi ezingama-40, kanti eyezinkampani zaseShayina ingaphansi kwezikhathi ezingama-30.Isizathu esiyisisekelo somehluko ukuthi amabhizinisi ase-American SaaS anezinga eliphezulu lokufiphala kwamafu, okungukuthi, anenani eliphezulu lemali engenayo yebhizinisi lamafu.Ngemuva kwezindleko zokuqala ze-R&D kanye nezindleko zokumaketha, zingene esikhathini sokukhula esizinzile uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi izinga lokukhula lemali engenayo nenzuzo yonke liphezulu.Ukukhula kwemali engenayo ezinkampanini ze-SaaS e-China kufinyelele ku-21%, ngaphansi kwesigamu se-avareji yase-US, kanti inzuzo yonke ibiseyimbi ngokwesilinganiso.Ngokujula koguquko lwamabhizinisi aseShayina e-SaaS, ukwanda kwemali engenayo yebhizinisi lamafu kanye nokugcwaliseka kancane kancane kokusebenza, inani lemakethe lisenegumbi elingaphezu kuka-30% lokuthuthuka esikhathini esizayo.

4, I-inthanethi Yezinto ekufikeni kwemboni, gxila emathubeni okutshala avundlile amathathu aqondile

4.1 Ukuxhumana kwezinto eziyizigidigidi zezimayini zegolide, ungqimba lwemboni yokwamukela amathuba

Inombolo yoxhumo Lwe-inthanethi Yezinto (iot) iphezulu kakhulu kunaleyo Ye-inthanethi Yezinto (iot).Ngokusho kwe-GSMA, imboni ye-iot yomhlaba wonke ibibiza ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-343 ngonyaka wezi-2019 futhi izofinyelela ku- $ 1.12 trillion ngo-2025, ngezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe elingaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-20.Ngokusho kwe-IoT Analytics, ekupheleni kuka-2020, kuzoba namadivayisi axhunyiwe angama-IoT ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11.7 kumadivayisi axhumene ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-21.7 emhlabeni jikelele.Njengoba inani lezinto ezixhumene nomhlaba lidlula inani labantu abaxhumeke kuyo, i-inthanethi Yezinto iyavela njengesizukulwane esilandelayo sengqalasizinda yebhizinisi kuzo zonke izimboni nemingcele, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ibe yithuba elikhulu lokutshala izimali ku-ICT esikhathini esizayo. Iminyaka engu-30.

Inqubo ye-inthanethi yezinto iyahola e-China, futhi inani loxhumo okwenziwa opharetha bomhlaba lithatha kwabathathu abaphezulu.Inqubo yokuthuthukisa I-inthanethi Yezinto Yomhlaba wonke ingahlulelwa cishe ngenombolo yoxhumo lwe-inthanethi Yezinto yamaselula yama-opharetha.Ukuthuthukiswa kwe-Intanethi Yezinto Zasekhaya kuhola umhlaba.Ngokusho kwe-IoT Analytics, iselula yaseChina yayinokuxhumana okuningi kwamaselula e-IoT ngo-2015, okubala amaphesenti angu-19.Ngo-2020H1, uxhumo lwe-inthanethi ye-inthanethi yezinto ye-China Mobile lubalelwa ku-54%, i-Unicom ne-Telecom yenze u-9% no-11% ngokulandelana.Ama-opharetha amathathu amakhulu aseShayina enze amaphesenti angama-74 okuxhunywa kwe-iot yamaselula, okungenye ephakeme kakhulu emhlabeni.I-China ithuthukise inombolo yoxhumo lwe-inthanethi Yezinto, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthuthukiswa kokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda yenethiwekhi yasekhaya kanye nokukhuthazwa kwenqubomgomo.

Uxhumo lwe-inthanethi Yezinto lusesewuncane lwenani eliphansi.Uma sibheka inzuzo yomhlaba wonke yebhizinisi le-IoT, i-ARPU yebhizinisi le-IoT yabaqhubi abakhulu ingaphansi kuka-$10 ngenyanga, kuyilapho INOMBOLO yoxhumo lwe-NB-iot e-China yenza imali eyengeziwe, futhi i-ARPU ingaphansi kwe-$1 ngenyanga.Ukuxhumana kwe-iot yomhlaba wonke kusekuncane futhi umthamo wenani lomsebenzisi uphansi.Ngokunwetshwa kwenombolo yokuxhumana nohlelo lokusebenza, inani linomkhuba okhulayo.

I-inthanethi yezinto phakathi nesikhathi somqondo we-hype, ukuya embonini yokufika.Ngokomjikelezo wezobuchwepheshe oshicilelwe ngu-Gartner, ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe obusha kuvame ukuqala kwasekuqaleni, bese kuthi i-hype yabezindaba iqhume futhi iqhume, futhi ekugcineni ifinyelele esicongweni sokusetshenziswa njengoba ubuchwepheshe buvuthwa. Ngokomkhuba we-Wind Internet of Things Index, singathola ukuthi unyaka ka-2015 wawuyingqophamlando yemboni ye-inthanethi Yezinto, u-2016 wawungaphansi komkhakha we-Intanethi Yezinto, kanye nevolumu yokuhweba kanye nenkomba ye-Intanethi Yezinto. Umkhakha we-inthanethi Wezinto ukhuphuke kancane kusukela ngo-2019 kuya ku-2020. Sikholelwa ukuthi i-inthanethi yezinto idlule inkathi yomqondo we-hype, ukuya embonini yokufika,okufanelekile ukutshala imali ekukhuleni komkhakha ongaphansi.Uma sibheka emuva ekuthuthukisweni kwemboni ye-inthanethi Yezinto ngo-2020, indawo yokutshala imali izoba ngaphansi kwalezi zindlela ezintathu:

I-Trend 1: Izindinganiso ziya zifana kakhulu

Ukufika kwamazinga okuxhumana, ukubambisana kombimbi lwemboni.1) Ukuqaliswa kwamazinga okuxhumana:Ngo-Ephreli 2020, uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi (MIIT) ukhiphe Isaziso Sokuthuthukisa Ukuthuthuka Okusheshisiwe kwe-5G, esihlongoze amazinga abalulekile okuxhumana nezivumelwano zokukhuthaza i-5G ne-LT-V2X ekwakhiweni kwamadolobha ahlakaniphile nezokuthutha ezihlakaniphile.NgoMeyi, uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi (MIIT) ukhiphe Isaziso Sokujulisa Ukuthuthukiswa Okuphelele Kwe-inthanethi Yezinto Yeselula, uphakamisa ukuthi i-NB-iot kanye ne-Cat1 bazosebenzisana ukwenza uxhumano lwe-inthanethi ye-2G/3G Yezinto;NgoJulayi 2020, i-International Telecommunication Union (ITU) yanquma ukwenza i-NB-iot ne-NR izinga le-5G.2) Ukusebenzisana kwe-Industrial Alliance:NgoZibandlela wezi-2020, ngaphansi kokuqondiswa nokusekelwa uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, izifundiswa ezingama-24 ze-Chinese Academy of Sciences kanye ne-Chinese Academy of Sciences kanye namabhizinisi ahamba phambili angama-65 bethula ngokubambisana i-OLA Alliance.I-OLA Alliance izozibophezela ekuthuthukiseni izindinganiso ezifanele zazo ZONKE Izinto, ibone ukuqashelwa kanye nokushintshisana ngezindinganiso zomhlaba wonke, futhi ikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe nezimboni ezihlobene.

Ithrendi yesibili: Ukuhlanganiswa okujulile kobuchwepheshe

I-inthanethi Yezinto ihlukaniswe yaba izixhumanisi ezine: isendlalelo sombono, isendlalelo senethiwekhi, isendlalelo seplathifomu kanye nesendlalelo sohlelo lokusebenza.Ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe kwesixhumanisi ngasinye kukhuthaza inqubekelaphambili yemboni ye-inthanethi Yezinto.Ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe kwamanje kubonakala ikakhulukazi kungqimba yenethiwekhi kanye nesendlalelo sohlelo lokusebenza.Ezingeni lenethiwekhi, ukuthengiswa kwe-5G kanye nokuphusha kwe-WiFi6 kuye kwathuthukisa amanethiwekhi okuxhumana, okusheshisa inqubekelaphambili ehamba kancane yangaphambilini Ye-inthanethi Yezimoto kanye Ne-inthanethi Yezimboni Yezinto.Ezingeni lohlelo lokusebenza, inhlanganisela ye-cloud computing, i-AI, i-blockchain nobunye ubuchwepheshe obune-inthanethi Yezinto ithuthukise inani lezinsizakalo zohlelo lokusebenza.

Ithrendi yesithathu: Isikali esikhulu emdlalweni

Esikhathini esedlule, abadlali abakhulu bemboni ye-inthanethi Yezinto kwakuyiziqhwaga ze-inthanethi ezinemali eqinile.Babeke amazinga amaningi e-inthanethi Yezinto futhi bakhe i-inthanethi Yezinto Ecosystem.Esikubonayo manje ukuthi iziqhwaga zalo lonke uchungechunge lwezimboni zingena emkhakheni ngezinga elikhulu ukukhuthaza inqubekelaphambili Ye-inthanethi Yezinto.Ama-giants ochungechungeni lwezimboni angahlukaniswa abe izingqimba ezintathu eziyinhloko:

1) Isendlalelo sombono: Igxile kakhulu kubakhiqizi bezingxenyekazi zekhompuyutha abangaphansi, okuhlanganisa abakhiqizi be-chip (i-Qualcomm, i-Huawei), abakhiqizi bezinzwa (i-Bosch, i-Broad Com), abakhiqizi bamamojula (i-Sierra Wireless, i-Remote Communications), njll., konke okuye kwaqaliswa. imikhiqizo ye-blockbuster iot, edlala indima ebalulekile ekuthuthukiseni imikhiqizo ye-hardware evuthiwe kanye nokunciphisa izindleko zengxenye.

2) Isendlalelo senethiwekhi: Ikakhulukazi kubaqhubi bezingcingo, abaholayo ekwakhiweni kwenethiwekhi Yezinto Ye-inthanethi kanye nokusheshisa isigqi sebhizinisi senethiwekhi ye-inthanethi Yezinto.Opharetha beTelecom baphinde basebenzise ishaneli yabo yenethiwekhi ukuze banwebe kokubili phezulu naphansi kochungechunge lwezimboni.

3) Isendlalelo sohlelo lokusebenza: Ikakhulukazi izikhondlakhondla ze-inthanethi nezikhondlakhondla zemboni yendabuko, izikhondlakhondla ze-inthanethi zigxila ekuqondeni ukusuka ku-TO C ekupheleni kuya ku-B ekupheleni, izikhondlakhondla zemboni yendabuko (ezifana no-Haier, Midea, Siemens) zithatha isinyathelo sokukhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kwe-inthanethi. Wezinto emikhakheni yabo, futhi bakopishele kwezinye izimboni.

(2) Iketanga lemboni ye-inthanethi Yezinto yinde futhi izacile, futhi isendlalelo sombono ingesokuqala ukuzuza

Uchungechunge lwezimboni lwe-inthanethi yezinto lunwebeka lube lude futhi lube mncane, futhi ungqimba lokubona luqala ukuzuza.I-iot industry chain ihlukaniswe ngamaleveli amane:1) Ukuhlukaniswa kwesendlalelo sesicelo;2) Isiteji sikaMathewu umphumela uyavela;3) Ukuhlalisana kwamazinga amaningi kusendlalelo senethiwekhi;4) Ukuhlanganiswa kwethrendi yesendlalelo sombono.Iminyaka emihlanu ezayo kuzoba iminyaka emihlanu yokuthi I-inthanethi Yezinto yandise ukuxhumana, futhi izinzuzo eziyinhloko inzwa, i-core chip, imojula, i-MCU, i-terminal kanye nabanye abakhiqizi behadiwe.

4.2 I-inthanethi Yezimoto ingenye yezimo ezibaluleke kakhulu zokusetshenziswa kwe-5G, futhi indawo yemakethe kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-2 trillion yuan.

Okokuqala, inqubomgomo, imephu yomgwaqo yaseChina ehlakaniphile nexhunyiwe icacile.NgoNovemba 2020, i-National Intelligent Connected Vehicle Innovation Center yakhipha uhlelo lwe-“Intelligent Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0″ oluhlakaniphile lokuthuthukisa imoto.Kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2025, izimoto ezixhumene ezizimele ze-L2 kanye ne-L3 e-China zibalelwa ku-50% wesamba sezimoto ezithengisiwe, kanti izinga lokuhlanganisa izimoto ze-CV2X terminal lifinyelele ku-50%.Izimoto ezizimele kakhulu zithola izicelo zokuhweba ezindaweni ezinomkhawulo kanye nezimo ezithile;Kusukela ngo-2026 kuya ku-2030, izimoto ezihlakaniphile ezixhumene ne-l2-L3 zizoba ngaphezu kuka-70% wevolumu yokuthengisa, izinhlobo zokushayela ezizimele ze-L4 zizobalelwa ku-20%, kanti imishini yemoto entsha ye-C-V2X izothandwa ngokuyisisekelo;Kusukela ngo-2031 kuya ku-2035, zonke izinhlobo zezimoto ezixhunyiwe kanye nezimoto ezizimele zizosetshenziswa kabanzi;Ngemuva kuka-2035, izimoto ezizimele ze-L5 zizosetshenziswa.

Ukufakwa ngaphambili kwe-inthanethi yezimoto kuba okujwayelekile, futhi izinga lomthwalo liyathuthukiswa kancane kancane. Ngokwezibalo ze-gaOGong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuSepthemba 2020, ingozi ye-4G Internet yezimoto iyizigidi ezingu-5.8591, ngokukhula konyaka ngonyaka kwe-44.22%;Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuSepthemba, izinga lokulayisha libe ngu-46.21%, likhuphuke cishe ngo-20% unyaka nonyaka.I-T-box kanye nemojula yemoto yimikhiqizo yehadiwe ebaluleke kakhulu yokulayisha ngaphambili kwemoto, futhi kancane kancane isiphenduke imishini ejwayelekile emakethe yezimoto.

Izinkampani zezimoto zizosheshisa izinga lokungena kwezimoto ezintsha ezixhunyiwe futhi zixhumanise nezinye izinhlangano ukuthuthukisa i-5G C-V2X. Ama-oems amakhulu ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe akhuthaza ngenkuthalo ukusebenza kwe-inthanethi yezimoto zezimoto ezintsha, i-FAW, i-Ford, i-Changan, i-Ford nolunye uhlelo lokufinyelela amaphesenti angu-100 ezimoto ezintsha e-China ngo-2020. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ama-OVENS asheshisa ukuhlelwa ye-5G C-V2X ukuze ibambe ukuphakama kwezobuchwepheshe.Ngo-Ephreli 2019, izinkampani zezimoto zaseChina eziyi-13 ezinemikhiqizo ezimele zikhiphe ngokusemthethweni umgwaqo Wezentengiselwano we-C-V2X e-China, kuhloswe ngawo iwindi lesikhathi sika-2020-2021 ukukhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kwezohwebo kwemboni ye-C-V2X e-China.Kulesi sigaba samanje, bonke abakhiqizi bamamojula abakhulu basheshisa ukwakheka kwenkundla yezokuxhumana yezimoto ye-5G, kanti i-HUAWEI, i-Yuyuan Communications namanye amamojula okuxhumana we-5G adayiswe.

I-inthanethi Yezimoto ingenye yobuchwepheshe obuvuthwe kakhulu, indawo ebanzi kakhulu, kanye nezimo zohlelo lokusebenza ezisekela izimboni eziphelele ngaphansi kwe-5G.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi isikhala esiphelele phakathi kuka-2020 no-2030 sicishe sibe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili, amo.I-inthanethi Yezimoto ingenye yezimo zohlelo lokusebenza ezinobuchwepheshe obuvuthwe kakhulu, i-mng okuthi "imoto ehlakaniphile", "umgwaqo ohlakaniphile" kanye "nokubambisana kwezimoto" okungama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-8350, ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2950 kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-763 ngokulandelana.Njengamanje, imboni ye-inthanethi Yezimoto ibhekene nokuvela kwezinto ezintathu: inqubomgomo, ubuchwepheshe kanye nezimboni.Kulindeleke ukuthi izinga lokukhula kwemboni lidlule ku-60% ngo-2020. Ezingeni lobuchwepheshe, i-c-V2X, ubuchwepheshe bokuxhumana obubalulekile be-inthanethi Yezimoto, iya ngokuya ivuthwa.Inqubekelaphambili enhle yenziwe kuzo zonke izici ukusuka ekumisweni kuya ekwenziweni kwezimboni ze-r&d kuya ekubonisweni kwezicelo.Ezingeni lezimboni, iziqhwaga zobuchwepheshe, abakhiqizi bezimoto nabakhiqizi bamafu bangamandla amathathu ahamba phambili ekuhlelweni okujulile.Ukugxila kwamanje kwenethiwekhi yezimoto nokuxhumana kwemigwaqo ukusheshisa izinga lemboni.

Ngokusekelwe kumgomo "wezindleko-inzuzo", ijubane lokwakha eliyinhloko le-inthanethi Yezimoto lizoshintsha liye emuva naphambili phakathi "kobuhlakani obubodwa" kanye "nobuhlakani obuhlanganyelwe".Ngasohlangothini lwemoto, sikholelwa ukuthi ngo-2020-2025, izinga lokungena kwe-L1/2/3 lokushayela ngokuzenzakalelayo lizophindeka kabili, inani lemoto eyodwa lizokhuphuka izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-15, futhi ingxenye yenani lesofthiwe izokwenyuka ngaphezu kuka-30%;Ehlangothini lomgwaqo, sicabanga ukuthi indlela esheshayo kanye nempambano yedolobha izoba isiqondiso sokuqala sokufika "komgwaqo ohlakaniphile", futhi ukwakhiwa kwasekuqaleni kusekelwe emishini yehadiwe.Ohlangothini lwenethiwekhi, isigaba sokuqala sokuthuthukiswa kwemboni ngokuyinhloko ukusungula ukuxhumana.Ngokwakhiwa kwenethiwekhi yesikali se-5G kanye nokukhuthazwa kwe-C-V2X ngo-2020, ukusebenzisana kwemoto nomgwaqo kuzobona igagasi lokuqala lokufika kwenani elikhulu, ngaleyo ndlela kudonse isandulelo sokuthuthukiswa kokuxhumana kwezimoto kuya emgwaqeni kusuka kubuhlakani obubodwa. ekuhlakanipheni ngokubambisana.

Sicabanga ukuthi u-2020 uyisilinganiso sokuqala sokuxhumana kwezimoto esiwela phansi, imoto ehlakaniphile, ubuhlakani bomgwaqo kanye nemizamo yokubambisana yomgwaqo yokwakha izingxenye ezintathu kuzohlanganiswa, uma sibheka kusigqi semboni yamanje ehlanganyelwayo engu-C - umgwaqo wezimoto i-V2X. Iketanga liyaphawuleka ikakhulukazi, ngakho-ke, siphakamisa ukuthi imojula yokuxhumana engenantambo, eholela ekuxhumaneni okukude, izixazululo zokuthutha ezihlakaniphile Abakhiqizi besayensi nobuchwepheshe abayinkulungwane, abakhiqizi be-RSU beGenvict ubuchwepheshe, ubuchwepheshe be-WANji, i-OBU/ T-box abakhiqizi abahlobene nabaphezulu abasafufusa futhi abakhiqizi beseva yekhompuyutha onqenqemeni ulwazi lwamagagasi olwandle.Ngaphezu kwalokho, sinquma ukuthi ibhayisikili elihlakaniphile lizoqhubeka nokuthuthuka, izinga lokungena kwe-L1/L2/L3 liwumkhuba, ngakho-ke kuyanconywa ukuthi unake abakhiqizi abafanelekile, okuhlanganisa nomkhiqizi wesofthiwe ye-cockpit ehlakaniphile uZhongkichuang da, umholi we-IVI. UDesai Xiwei, umkhiqizi we-DMS uRui Ming Technology, njll.

4.3 I-Smart Home — Ukuqaliswa kwesixazululo esihlakaniphile somkhiqizo owodwa kusixazululo esihlakaniphile sendlu yonke

Izinga lemakethe yasekhaya ehlakaniphile yaseShayina likhula kancane kancane, futhi imikhiqizo kanye ne-ecology kuwumgogodla wempumelelo yesikhathi esizayo.Imboni yasekhaya ehlakaniphile yaseShayina yaqala sekwephuzile, futhi inqubo yokukhiqiza ubuchwepheshe iyashesha, iphushela ikhaya elihlakaniphile laseChina endleleni esheshayo.Ngokusho kwe-IDC, i-China yathumela imikhiqizo yasekhaya ehlakaniphile eyizigidi ezingu-208 ngo-2019, phakathi kwayo ukuphepha okuhlakaniphile, izipikha ezihlakaniphile, ukukhanya okuhlakaniphile neminye imikhiqizo eyodwa yathunyelwa ngaphezulu.Ngenxa yomthelela walolu bhubhane nezinye izici ezinkulu, u-2020 kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule ngo-3% unyaka nonyaka, okuzoba unyaka obalulekile ekuthuthukisweni kwemakethe.Inzwa yemakethe yasekhaya ehlakaniphile, i-AI nobunye ubuchwepheshe busesesigabeni sempumelelo, ulwazi lomsebenzisi ludinga ukuthuthukiswa, i-ecosystem iyonke ayikakheki.Esikhathini esizayo ukuqubuka kokwehla kwezimakethe, amandla omkhiqizo kanye nemvelo ukuze kuthuthukiswe ikusasa elingumongo.

I-OLA Alliance yasungulwa ukuze ikhuthaze ukuxhumana kwekhaya okuhlakaniphile.Ngomhla lu-1 kuZibandlela, i-Open Link Association (OLA Alliance) yethulwa ngokuhlanganyela izifundiswa ezingama-24, i-China Federation of Industrial Economics, i-Alibaba, i-Baidu, i-Haier, i-Huawei, i-JD, i-Xiaomi, i-China Telecom, i-China Institute of Information and Communication, i-China Mobile kanye ezinye izikhungo.I-OLA Alliance ihlose ukudlala ngokugcwele ngezinzuzo zemboni ye-inthanethi Yezinto yasekhaya, ukwakha izinga lokuxhumana elihlangene kanye nesimiso semvelo semboni ye-inthanethi Yezinto ngobuchwepheshe obuphambili obuhambisana nezici zemboni yaseShayina, futhi iyivule futhi iyikhuthaze ku umhlaba.Ngokohlelo lomkhiqizo we-OLA Alliance, iqoqo lokuqala lemikhiqizo esekelwe ezingeni lokuxhumana le-OLA Alliance, okuhlanganisa izipikha ezihlakaniphile, amasango, amarutha, ama-air conditioner, izibani ezihlakaniphile, ozibuthe bezicabha, amapulatifomu amafu nezinhlelo zokusebenza, zizobona inkundla, ukusebenzisana kwemikhiqizo ehlukahlukene kanye nezigaba ezahlukene, okukhuthaze kakhulu inqubo yokuthuthukiswa kwekhaya elihlakaniphile e-China.
Ikhaya elihlakaniphile kusukela kumikhiqizo eyodwa ehlakaniphile ukuya ekufikeni kwesixazululo esisodwa.Esigabeni sokuqala sokuthuthukiswa kwekhaya elihlakaniphile, amatheminali omkhiqizo owodwa ayeyinhloko, i-Wi-Fi, i-APP kanye nefu kwakuyizisetshenziswa ezintathu ezijwayelekile, futhi izikhulumi ezihlakaniphile zaba imakethe enkulu yendawo.Ngomidondoshiya be-inthanethi abanjengo-Ali no-Xiaomi abangena mahhala kubo bonke, izikhulumi ezihlakaniphile zingena emjikelezweni wevolumu yenani eliphansi.Njengamanje, indawo yasekhaya ihlukene kabili, futhi izinhlobonhlobo zamadivayisi ahlakaniphile ziyanda, okuzala amafomu omkhiqizo okhaliphile ovuthiwe njengokukhanya okukhaliphile, amakhamera ahlakaniphile, amaswishi ahlakaniphile nokunye, futhi kuvula inkathi yekhaya elihlakaniphile elinendawo eyodwa. indlu yonke ehlakaniphile.Ngokuzayo, ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kobuchwepheshe obune obubalulekile be-inthanethi Yezinto, i-cloud computing, i-edge computing nobuhlakani bokwenziwa, inani elikhulu lamadivayisi lizoba yi-AloT, futhi ukuxhumana phakathi kwezansi nefu kuzojula nakakhulu.Ngokwesisekelo senani elikhulu lemvula yedatha yomsebenzisi, isidingo sokwakha izithombe ukuze zihlaziywe sizojula.

I-Smart home industry chain: ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kwehadiwe phezulu kuyathuthukiswa, futhi iphethini yokuncintisana emaphakathi "izingxenye ezintathu zomhlaba".

Phezu komfula: Ukukhuphuka komfula we-smart home kuhlukaniswe ngehadiwe nesoftware.

Izingxenyekazi zekhompuyutha:Ama-chips adingekayo ekhaya elihlakaniphile ngokuyisisekelo afana nama-chips ajwayelekile embonini ye-inthanethi Yezinto.Okwamanje, ukuthunyelwa okukhulu kusengabakhiqizi bama-chip baphesheya kwezilwandle, njenge-Qualcomm, i-Nvidia, i-Intel, njll. I-Domestic Lexin Technology iphikelela ocwaningweni lwe-chip ye-AIoT nokuthuthukiswa kanye nokuqamba okusha, futhi ingomunye wabahlinzeki abakhulu emkhakheni we-Wi-Fi MCU. ama-chips ku-inthanethi Yezinto.Amandla anamandla okushintshaniswa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kanye nokuncintisana kwemakethe yasekhaya.Ngokuphathelene nesilawuli esihlakaniphile, amabhizinisi asekhaya ahamba phambili anezabelo ze-heertai ne-Topang.

Isoftware: Okugxilwe kukho kwe-software catalysis ubuchwepheshe bokuxhumana obungenantambo be-inthanethi Yezinto.Izinga elihlangene lokuxhumana lemboni lizokwakhiwa kancane kancane ukwenza ikhaya elihlakaniphile lilawuleke nganoma yisiphi isikhathi.Abadlali abakhulu basekhaya bahlanganisa iHuawei neZTE.Ubuchwepheshe bamafu busetshenziswa kakhulu ekhaya elihlakaniphile, kanye nobuchwepheshe bobuhlakani bokwenziwa obufana nokubonwa komshini nokuqashelwa kwephethini nakho kuhlala kuthuthukisa ikhono lokusebenzisana lekhaya elihlakaniphile.Izinkampani zezakhiwo zasekhaya zifaka i-BAT neHuawei.

I-Midstream: I-Smart home midstream ihlanganisa abakhiqizi bemikhiqizo eyodwa abahlakaniphile nezinkundla, kunezinhlobo ezintathu zamabhizinisi ezibamba iqhaza emqhudelwaneni.Amabhizinisi endabuko ezinto zikagesi zasendlini, njenge-Gree, i-Haier, iMidea, njll., asungule imikhiqizo ehlukahlukene yezinto zikagesi zasekhaya ezihlakaniphile, futhi ngesisekelo sezigaba ezicebile zezinto zikagesi ezihlakaniphile zasekhaya, abambisana nabahlinzeki besevisi yesofthiwe ukuze bakhe i-ecosystem yesikhulumi.Izinkampani zobuchwepheshe be-inthanethi, njenge-BAT, Huawei kanye ne-Xiaomi, zenze i-smart home ecology ngezinzuzo zazo zobuchwepheshe.Isibonelo, i-Xiaomi isebenzise isu elithi “1+4+N”, elithatha omakhalekhukhwini njengomongo kanye ne-smart TVS, izipikha, amarutha namakhompyutha aphathekayo njengendlela yokungenela ukwakha i-matrix yomkhiqizo nokusungula izinkundla ze-IoT.Amabhizinisi amasha ahlukaniswe amakamu amabili.Enye igxile ekuhlelweni kwemikhiqizo ehlakaniphile, njengoLuka, kanti enye inikeza izixazululo, njenge-Oribo.

Phansi komfula: Indawo ephansi yekhaya elihlakaniphile isiteshi sokuthengisa esigxile kubasebenzisi, esiqaphela ukuthengiswa kwesiteshi esigcwele ngosizo lokuthengisa ku-inthanethi nokungaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi.Izindlela ezithile zifaka: inkundla ye-e-commerce, ukuthengiswa kwe-O2O, ihholo lesipiliyoni sasekhaya esihlakaniphile, njll.

4.4 I-inthanethi yesathelayithi ifakwe nengqalasizinda entsha, ingenisa ukukhiqizwa kwezinga elikhulu

I-Satellite Internet izovala ukuhlukana kwedijithali, ngemali engenayo yesathelayithi ephezulu edlula amabhiliyoni angama-30 ngo-2024.Ngomhla zingama-20 kuMbasa, 2020, i-inthanethi yesathelayithi yahlukaniswa “njengengqalasizinda entsha” okokuqala ngqa.Ngo-2019, izinga lokungena ku-inthanethi emhlabeni wonke lalingu-53.6%, futhi cishe ingxenye yabantu emhlabeni “yayingaxhunyiwe”.Uma kuqhathaniswa nesiteshi sesisekelo esiphansi, i-inthanethi yesathelayithi inezinzuzo ezifana nokufakwa okubanzi, izindleko eziphansi futhi akukho mingcele yendawo, futhi ingenye yezixazululo ezibalulekile zokuxazulula ukuhlukana kwedijithali nokwakha ukuxhumana emhlabeni jikelele.Ngokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe, amasathelayithi aphuma phambili kancane kancane athatha indawo yamasathelayithi okuxhumana avamile.Imali engenayo yemboni yesathelayithi esebenza kakhulu isifinyelele ku-$9.1 billion ngo-2019, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esiyinhlanganisela esingaba ngu-30% phakathi kuka-2018 no-2024. Imithombo emikhulu yemali engenayo i-broadband, ukuxhumana kweselula, kanye nohwebo lwezinkampani.

Uchungechunge lwezimboni lokuxhumana ngesathelayithi lunwetshiwe, futhi indawo yemakethe ye-c-end yandisiwe.Njengamanje, ukukhiqizwa kwetheminali yaphansi kanye nezicelo zesathelayithi zenza u-90% wemali engenayo yemboni yesathelayithi, kanti izinsiza ze-c-terminal broadband, izinsiza zokuxhumana zezimoto nezokundiza komphakathi zizoba yimithombo emikhulu yemali engenayo ye-inthanethi yesathelayithi emhlabeni ngo-2030. Njengamanje, ukuxhumana ngesathelayithi. imboni kanye nemboni yobuchwepheshe bolwazi inokuhlangana okujulile kancane kancane, izinsiza zokuxhumana zesathelayithi zesikhathi esizayo zizokwenziwa isisetshenziswa esisodwa esisebenza ngaphansi komfula izinsiza zolwazi, ezifana nokwakha isidingo sokushayela okuzenzakalelayo soxhumano lwenethiwekhi, ukubona i-inthanethi yezinto izimo zohlelo lokusebenza, njll. ., konke ukuxhumana kubasebenzisi be-C ukuze banikeze izixazululo zokuxhumana zekhwalithi.

Izicelo zesathelayithi ezingaphezu kuka-10,000 seziqediwe, okuphawula isikhathi sokuthuthuka ngokushesha kwe-inthanethi yaseShayina yesethelayithi.NgoDisemba 4, 2020, i-China yayisisungule amasathelayithi angama-75, ikleliswe endaweni yesibili emhlabeni, futhi yaqeda isigaba sokuqala sephrojekthi yayo yokuqala yamafu yesathelayithi ye-Intanethi Yezinto.Ngomhla zingama-28 kuSepthemba 2020, i-China yathumela ngokusemthethweni ku-itu idatha yenethiwekhi yesicelo se-orbit kanye nemvamisa yeqoqo lezinkanyezi elikhulu lase-China elinomjikelezo ophansi, onengqikithi yamasathelayithi angu-12,992.Ngokukhula kwekhono lamasathelayithi amaningi kurokhethi eyodwa kanye nokwehla kwezindleko zokwethulwa, iChina izongena esikhathini esibucayi sokwethulwa kwesathelayithi ngo-2021.

Enye yezinto ezidingekayo ukuze kuphothulwe umsebenzi omkhulu wenethiwekhi yesathelayithi ukuhlaliswa kwemboni enkulu yokukhiqiza isathelayithi. Mayelana nezinkampani zikahulumeni, i-Shanghai Micro Satellite Engineering Centre, eyakhiwe ngokuhlanganyela yi-Chinese Academy of Sciences kanye nedolobha lase-Shanghai, ihlela ukwakha imboni yokuqamba amasathelayithi esigabeni sesibili.Isathelayithi yase-Dongfanghong isanda kubambisana ne-Aihualu Robot ukwenza ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuhlanganiswa kwemigqa yokukhiqiza yasendaweni yamasathelayithi amancane ezentengiselwano ngamarobhothi ahlakaniphile.Mayelana nezinkampani ezizimele, izimboni zeSatellite ze-Yinhe Aerospace, i-Nintian Microstar kanye ne-Guoxing Aerospace yethulwe ngokusemthethweni, kanti i-auto giant Geely nayo isiqalile ukujoyina iphrojekthi yesathelayithi.

Ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwezinkampani ezizimele zasemkhathini sekukhulile, futhi amandla okuqalisa azinzile nasimeme ayisihluthulelo. Njengoba ubuchwepheshe bokutholwa kwe-rocket ye-Space X buye banciphisa kakhulu izindleko zokuqalisa futhi yethula ngempumelelo imisebenzi eminingi yezinkanyezi ezingama-60 ngeshothi eyodwa, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezentengiso kukhuphuke kakhulu.Kusukela ngomhla ka-4 kuZibandlela, ngokolwazi olukhishwe ngabakwa-36KR, sekuphele izikhathi eziyi-14 zezimali ezenzeke emkhakheni wezohwebo ngo-2020, ezingu-8 zazo zibandakanya inani elingaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-RMB eziyi-100.Phakathi kwazo, i-Changguang Satellite isiqede uxhaso lwezimali oluyi-RMB 2.464 billion ngaphambi kwe-IPO, iBlue Arrow Space isiqede uxhaso lwe-RMB 1.3 billion C+.Ngemuva kokutshalwa kwezimali, inani le-Galaxy Space licishe libe ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-8, libe ibhizinisi lokuqala le-unicorn emkhakheni we-satellite ye-inthanethi, futhi inhloko-dolobha igxile ekhanda.Uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhondlakhondla zaphesheya kwezilwandle i-Space X kanye ne-OneWeb, izinkampani zase-China ezizimele zase-Space zisenegebe elibalulekile emandleni okuqalisa, njengoba ukwethulwa kwamarokhethi okudayiswa okubili kuphela kwezine okuyimpumelelo.Ukufezekiswa kwe-loop evaliwe yebhizinisi kuyiphuzu elibalulekile lokuthuthukiswa okusimeme kwamabhizinisi esikhathini esizayo, futhi amandla okuqalisa azinzile nasimeme yiphuzu eliyinhloko elibalulekile.NgoNovemba 2020, i-Xinghe-powered Ceres 1 yafakwa ngempumelelo ku-orbit, futhi ukuhlolwa kwesikhala se-Blue Arrow kwaba yimpumelelo.Kulindeleke ukuthi yenze indiza yayo yokuqala ngonyaka ozayo.

Kulinganiselwa ukuthi inani eliphumayo lemboni yesathelayithi yaseChina lizofinyelela ku-600-860 billion yuan eminyakeni eyisishiyagalolunye ezayo.Ngokwe-ITU, umlaza ohlongozwayo uzodinga ukwethula uhhafu wamasathelayithi awo kungakapheli iminyaka eyisithupha bese wethulwa ngokugcwele kungakapheli isishiyagalolunye.Isimo esingenathemba ukuthi i-75% yamasathelayithi izokwethulwa eminyakeni eyisishiyagalolunye ezayo, nama-satellites angu-2,450, futhi isimo esinethemba lokuthi kuzokwethulwa i-100% yamasathelayithi, namasathelayithi angu-3,500.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi eminyakeni eyisishiyagalolunye ezayo, inani lomkhiqizo wemboni yesathelayithi yaseChina lizofinyelela ku-600-860 billion yuan.

Isu lokutshala imali liphakamisa ukukhiqiza kuqala, bese uphendukela ekutshalweni kwezimali ochungechungeni lwemboni.Sikholelwa ukuthi uhlelo lwe-Inthanethi ye-Satellite Constellation luzoqala ngokukhiqiza nokwethulwa kwamasathelayithi, futhi ngemva kokuba ukuxhumanisa kokuqala sekuqediwe ukuze kusetshenziswe, ukukhiqizwa kwemishini yaphansi kanye nezicelo zesathelayithi kuzoqala.Amathuba okutshalwa kwezimali ochungechunge lwezimboni aqale atshale imali ezinkampanini eziwuchungechunge ezikhuphuka nomfula njengokukhiqiza amasathelayithi kanye nokwethulwa kwesathelayithi, bese kancane kancane aphendukele ezinkampanini zamaketanga ezimbonini ezisezingeni eliphansi ezifana nemishini yaphansi, ukusebenza kwesathelayithi nokusetshenziswa kwesathelayithi.

Ukwakhiwa kwesathelayithi: eholwa “yiqembu lesizwe”, lilekelelwa ngamabhizinisi azimele.Emkhakheni wokukhiqiza amasathelayithi, amabhizinisi kahulumeni amelwe izindiza zezindiza kanye namabhizinisi ezempi kanye neNational Defence Research Institute banamandla avelele futhi bayakwazi ukufeza yonke imisebenzi yokuthekelisa ngesathelayithi kanye nokuqalisa ohambweni, bephethe isikhundla esiphezulu.Izinkampani zikahulumeni eziyinhloko ekukhiqizeni amasathelayithi zihlanganisa: 1) Isikhungo Sesihlanu Sesayensi Yezemkhathi Nobuchwepheshe, esizibandakanye ekuthuthukisweni kobuchwepheshe basemkhathini kanye nemikhumbi-mkhathi, futhi sesisungule futhi sethula imikhumbi-mkhathi engaphezu kwama-200;2) I-China Satellite (inkampani esohlwini elawulwa yi-Fifth Academy of Aerospace Sciences), ene-multi-layer layout ochungechungeni lwezimboni zokuthuthukiswa kwesathelayithi encane, ukuhlanganiswa kwesistimu ye-satellite yomhlabathi, ukukhiqizwa kwemishini yokugcina kanye nesevisi yokusebenza kwe-satellite;3) I-Shanghai Academy of Space Technology, isizinda esiyinhloko socwaningo nentuthuko yamasathelayithi e-meteorological kanye namasathelayithi akude e-China;4) Isikhungo sesibili se-Aerospace Science and Industry, umholi wokwakhiwa kwe-"Hongyun Project", njll. Amabhizinisi azimele akhiqiza iSatellite anezinsuku eziyisishiyagalolunye inkanyezi encane, iSathelayithi i-Changguang, i-tianyi Research Institute, i-Guoyu Star, i-Qianxun positioning, inkanyezi encane ye-nano nezinye. ukuqala, uhlelo lwamabhizinisi azimele luyaguquguquka, lungasetshenziswa njengesithasiselo esisebenzayo emabhizinisini kahulumeni.

Ukuqaliswa kwesathelayithi:I-China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation kanye ne-China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation “zingamaqembu esizwe” amarokhethi athwala impahla, futhi amabhizinisi azimele aqale azuza ukwethulwa ngempumelelo.Iqembu lesayensi ye-Aerospace kanye neqembu lesayensi ye-aerospace kanye nemboni yathatha cishe yonke into evuthayo ezweni lethu Imisebenzi yokwakha umcibisholo, kuhlanganise ne-space technology corp., uchungechunge lwamarokhethi olude lwe-mashi lungasuka oluncane luye olusindayo, lusuka enjinini ye-rocket eqinile, imbobo ye-tandem. yonke i-spectrum, kusukela kuchungechunge oluhambisanayo kuya ohlotsheni lwamanje lwemashi ende I-rocket yenkampani yenethiwekhi idlule uphawu lwe-300;Amarokhethi e-Casic's Pioneer kanye ne-Kuaizhou amarokhethi amancane, anenjini eqinile ahloselwe ukwethulwa kwe-obit ephansi yomhlaba.Phakathi kwamabhizinisi azimele asanda kusungulwa, i-Star Glory, i-Blue Arrow space, i-Onespace kanye ne-Lingke Space baqede ngokulandelana umkhankaso wabo wokuqala kusukela ngo-2018. Njengamanje, amarokhethi azimele wonke asesikhathini sokukhula, futhi iningi lawo likunqubo yokuthuthukisa ukugxuma kusuka ku-rocket eqinile kuya ku-rocket eyi-liquid.

Izinkampani zemishini yesathelayithi zihlukene phakathi, kanti i-China Satcom iyona yedwa ekusebenzeni kwesathelayithi.Imishini ephansi yesathelayithi ihlukaniswe izigaba ezimbili: okokusebenza kwenethiwekhi yaphansi kanye nemishini yokugcina yomsebenzisi.I-China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, i-China Satellite, i-Big Dipper Star, i-Hage Communications, i-China Haida njalo ihileleke ekwakhiweni kwemishini yomhlabathi.Ukuphela kwenkampani esebenza ngesathelayithi e-China yi-China Satcom, elawula imakethe yokusebenza kwesathelayithi.Abanye abakhiqizi bezinhlelo zokusebenza ezisekelwe ku-satellite bahlanganisa i-Aerospace Hongtu, i-Hualichuangtong, isofthiwe ye-Hypermap, i-unistrong, njll.
5. Ukushayela okuhlakaniphile: Ubuhlakani yithuba elikhulu kunawo wonke, futhi ithuba eliyinhloko liku-supply chain

5.1 Ngokungena kukaHuawei ezimotweni ezihlakaniphile, uchungechunge lwamanani embonini lubhekene nokuhlelwa kabusha

Ubuhlakani bengqondo yithuba elingakaze libonwe eminyakeni engama-30 ezayo.Ubuhlakani bezimoto ngesinye sezigcawu ezibaluleke kakhulu enkathini yobuhlakani.Imboni yezimoto ngokwezinga elithile izophinda ishintshe isuka emishinini esebenzayo iye kuma-smartphone, futhi uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngezimboni kanye nochungechunge lwenani luzohlelwa kabusha.Njengamanje, ubuchwepheshe be-ICT kanye nemboni yezimoto kwenzeka ekujuleni kokuhlangana, ukusebenzisa ikhompyutha kanye nobuhlakani kuzoba yindawo entsha yokulawula yamasu embonini.Imakethe yezimoto yendabuko, cishe ngokuphindwe kathathu ubukhulu bama-smartphones, inamasu amaningi.Babalelwa ku-1.8 bhiliyoni omakhalekhukhwini abathunyelwe emhlabeni wonke kanti imakethe yomhlaba wonke inenani elilinganiselwa ku-$500 billion, ngokusho kwe-IDC.Ngokusho kwe-International Organisation of Automobile Manufacturers, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto zabagibeli emhlabeni wonke ngo-2019 bekungamayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-64.34, kanti izimoto ezithunyelwe zizonke bezingamayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-91.36.Ngokusekelwe enanini elijwayelekile lezimoto zabagibeli ezingama-yuan angu-200,000, imakethe yezimoto zabagibeli iyodwa ifinyelele cishe kumadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.8.Imakethe yezimoto inamasu amaningi kuHuawei kunemakethe yama-smartphone eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-500.

Ngokombono wesikhathi, izinga lobuhlakani bezimoto liye lathuthukiswa ngokushesha, futhi imboni yezimoto ishintsha kusukela ekukhiqizeni kwendabuko kuya ekukhiqizeni kwezobuchwepheshe.Ngokusho kwe-China Automotive Research And Development Co., LTD., Ezimotweni ezintsha ezingu-573 ezethulwe phakathi kukaJanuwari no-Okthoba 2020, ezingu-239 zizoba nomsebenzi wokushayela ozimele we-L1, kanti ezingu-249 zizoba nomsebenzi wokushayela we-L2.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba 2020, izinga lokuhlanganiswa kwemisebenzi yokusiza abashayeli be-L1 kanye ne-L2 selifinyelele ngaphezu kwama-40%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi liqhubeke likhuphuka esikhathini esizayo.

Izinga lokungena lokufakwa kukagesi nokufakwa kukagesi likhula ngokushesha, kuyilapho ukushayela okuhlakaniphile kusesesigabeni sako sokuqala.Njengamanje, nakuba izinga lokungena lezimoto ezixhumene ezihlakaniphile ze-L1/L2 selifinyelele cishe ku-30%, elilingana nezinga lokungena lama-smartphones omhlaba ngo-2011, ukushayela okuhlakaniphile emhlabeni wonke kusesesigabeni sokuqala sobuhlakani.Ngokuzayo, ngokudayiswa kancane kancane kwe-5G-V2X, ukuhlala ngokubambisana kwebalazwe nencazelo ephezulu, kanye nokuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwezinga elihlakaniphile lamabhayisikili, ukushayela okuhlakaniphile kuzogxuma kancane kancane kusuka ku-L1/L2 kuya ku-L3/L4 kuze kufike ku-L5.

Ukungena kukaHuawei ezimotweni ezihlakaniphile ngalesi sikhathi kuyisinqumo esingenakugwenywa esihlanganisa amandla ayo futhi sihambisana nesitayela somkhakha.Ngokomlando, ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kwe-Huawei emabhizinisini amasha ngokuvamile kuhlangabezana nemibandela emibili: okokuqala, umthamo wemakethe omkhulu;Okwesibili, kusukela esikhathini, imakethe ingaphambi kokuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kokungena.

UHuawei usanda kukhipha isitaki esigcwele sesixazululo semoto ehlakaniphile i-HI, futhi i-matrix yomkhiqizo we-inthanethi yezimoto yakheke ngokuphelele. Ngo-Okthoba 30, 2020, uHuawei wethula i-HI (Huawei Intelligent Automotive Solution), uhlobo oluzimele lwezixazululo zezimoto ezihlakaniphile, lapho kwethulwa umkhiqizo omusha waminyaka yonke.Isixazululo semoto esihlakaniphile se-HI sihlanganisa i-1 computing kanye nezakhiwo zokuxhumana kanye nezinhlelo ezihlakaniphile ezingu-5, ukushayela okuhlakaniphile, i-cockpit ehlakaniphile, ugesi ohlakaniphile, inethiwekhi ehlakaniphile kanye nefu lemoto ehlakaniphile, kanye nesethi egcwele yezingxenye ezihlakaniphile ezifana ne-lidar, i-AR-HUD.I-algorithm entsha ye-HI kanye nohlelo lokusebenza luhlanganisa izinkundla ezintathu zekhompuyutha, iplathifomu yekhompiyutha yokushayela ehlakaniphile, inkundla yekhompiyutha ehlakaniphile ye-cockpit kanye neplathifomu yekhompyutha yokulawula imoto ehlakaniphile, kanye nezinhlelo ezintathu zokusebenza ze-AOS (uhlelo olusebenzayo lokushayela oluhlakaniphile), i-HOS (i-intelligent cockpit operating system) kanye ne-VOS. (isistimu yokusebenza yokulawula imoto ehlakaniphile).

1) I-computing eyodwa kanye nesakhiwo sokuxhumana. Ngokusekelwe emisebenzini yezingxenye ze-elekthronikhi zezimoto, i-Huawei computing kanye ne-architecture yezokuxhumana ihlukaniswe izizinda ezintathu: ukushayela, indawo yangasese, nokulawula imoto, futhi inikeza izinkundla ezintathu zekhompuyutha ezihambisanayo nezinhlelo zokusebenza.Lesi sakhiwo sisiza abakhiqizi bezimoto bendabuko ukusheshisa inqubo yezimoto ezichazwe ngesofthiwe futhi babone imodeli yebhizinisi entsha enezingxenyekazi zekhompuyutha ezithathelwanayo kanye nesofthiwe ethuthukiswayo.

2) Izinhlelo ezinhlanu ezihlakaniphile.I-Huawei ithuthukisa inethiwekhi yesakhiwo samafu esibulalayo sezimoto, ihlinzeka ngezinhlelo ezinhlanu ezihlakaniphile.Uhlangothi lokugcina luhlinzeka ngokushayela okuhlakaniphile nohlelo lwamandla ahlakaniphile, uhlelo lwenethiwekhi oluhlakaniphile ohlangothini lokuphatha luhlanganisa uchungechunge lwemikhiqizo efana nemojula yokuxhumana, i-T-box kanye nenethiwekhi ye-on-board, futhi uhlangothi lwamafu luhlinzeka ngesevisi yefu yokushayela ezenzakalelayo ye-huawei futhi Uhlelo lwe-cockpit oluhlakaniphile lwe-HiCar.

3) 30+ izingxenye ezihlakaniphile.Emqhudelwaneni oqondile ne-Tier1 yendabuko, i-Huawei iba Isigaba semakethe ekhulayo sezimoto ezihlakaniphile, ihlinzeka ngokuqondile izingxenye ezihlakaniphile ezifana ne-lidar ne-AR HUD emabhizinisini ezimoto.

Njengamanje, imakethe ye-inthanethi yezimoto nokushayela okukhaliphile ilawulwa yiziqhwaga zamazwe ngamazwe ze-Tier1.Ukuma kukaHuawei ukugxila kubuchwepheshe be-ICT futhi abe umphakeli wengxenye ekhulayo, ebhekene nama-70% emakethe ekhulayo.Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, sikholelwa ukuthi uHuawei kulindeleke ukuthi agcwalise igebe lasekhaya futhi abe umphakeli osezingeni lomhlaba weTier1 njengeBosch neMainland China.

5.2 Ukushayela okuhlakaniphile: gxila embonweni wesakhiwo + isendlalelo sokwenza izinqumo, inkundla yekhompyutha nokukhula kwe-lidar kuqine kakhulu

Uhlelo lokushayela oluhlakaniphile luyingxenye eyinhloko ekhuphukayo yemoto ehlakaniphile ehlukile emotweni yendabuko, engahlukaniswa ngokwesendlalelo sombono, isendlalelo sesinqumo kanye nesendlalelo esiphezulu.Njengamanje, uHuawei unesakhiwo sabo bonke.Isendlalelo senzwa (iso nendlebe) : ikakhulukazi sihlanganisa amakhamera, i-millimeter-wave radar, i-lidar nezinye izinzwa zokubona umbono wendawo.Isendlalelo sokwenza izinqumo (ubuchopho) : okuhlanganisa ama-chips nezinkundla zekhompuyutha, ezinomthwalo wemfanelo wokucubungula ulwazi, futhi ngokusekelwe olwazini lokubikezela, ukwahlulela, nokunikeza imiyalelo.Isendlalelo esiphezulu (izandla nezinyawo: okuhlanganisa ukubhuleka, ukuqondisa, njll., sinesibopho sokwenza imiyalelo nokwenza izenzo ezifana nokubhuleka, ukuqondisa, ukushintsha umzila, njll. Imakethe yezingxenye ezikhulayo elethwa ukushayela okuhlakaniphile ikakhulukazi isendlalelo sombono futhi ungqimba lwesinqumo, kuyilapho ungqimba oluphezulu lumayelana nokuthuthukiswa nokuzivumelanisa nezimo.

Silinganisela ukuthi indawo ekhulayo yokushayela okuhlakaniphile (inzwa kanye nokwenza izinqumo) emakethe yezimoto zabagibeli yaseShayina izofinyelela ku-220.8 wamayuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2025 kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-500 ngo-2030. Phakathi kwazo, inani lezinga lokuthatha izinqumo liphakeme kakhulu, okungaphezu kuka-50%.Ngokwezinga lokukhula, iplathifomu yekhompuyutha kanye ne-lidar inokukhula okungcono kakhulu, ngezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe elingaphezu kwama-30% kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.

Amathuba okutshalwa kwezimali: Ukukhula okuqine kakhulu kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo kuzoba kumapulatifomu ekhompiyutha, amakhamera we-lidar kanye namakhamera angaphakathi kwezimoto, okugxile ekwenziweni kwasendaweni kwe-supply chain namathuba omhlaba.

I-Huawei inezinzuzo eziqinile zezingxenyekazi zekhompuyutha kanye nengxenyekazi yekhompuyutha emkhakheni wokushayela okuhlakaniphile, futhi ukubamba iqhaza kwayo okuqinile kulungele ukusheshisa inqubo yokuhweba yalo lonke uchungechunge lwezimboni.Emkhakheni wesendlalelo sokubuka njengekhamera, kuqhamuke izinkampani eziningi ezincintisanayo emhlabeni wonke eChina, njengeSunny Optics, Howe Technology, njll., ezizohlomula ekukhuleni kwesamba nesabelo semakethe yezimoto.Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, amapulatifomu e-lidar ne-computing anamathemba okukhula aqine kakhulu eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo, futhi ngenkathi umncintiswano usaqala futhi isimo sezwe sisekude nokulungiswa, ukugxila kungabekwa ezinkampanini zokuqala zezohwebo ezinomuntu ohamba phambili. inzuzo kanye nekhono lokwandisa amazwe ngamazwe.

Inkampani eyinhloko embonini yasekhaya

Ikhamera esebhodini: I-Sainty Optics (i-optical lens), i-Weil Holdings (inzwa yesithombe)

I-Lidar: I-Lasai Technology, i-Radium God Intelligence, i-Sagittarius juchuang

Inkundla yekhompyutha: Huawei, Horizon Line Control: Bethel

5.3 I-Smart Cockpit: Isistimu ye-infotainment yemoto iwumgogodla, igxile kubahlinzeki abanezinzuzo zokuncintisana ku-hardware eyinhloko, isistimu yokusebenza/isofthiwe
I-Intelligence izoshintsha ngokuphelele imodeli yebhizinisi lendabuko, ukuthengisa izimoto ngeke kusaba ukuphela kokugcwaliseka kwenani kodwa indawo entsha yokuqala.I-cockpit iyisikhungo sokusebenzisana okukhaliphile phakathi kwabantu nezimoto.Kuso sonke isigcawu sabantu, imoto nekhaya, isipiliyoni esingaguquki sezigcawu eziningi siyisihluthulelo se-cockpit ehlakaniphile.

Sikholelwa ukuthi i-cockpit ehlakaniphile iyisicelo esivuthiwe kakhulu ohlelweni lokushayela okuhlakaniphile,futhi ubukhulu bemakethe kulindeleke ukuthi bufinyelele kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-100 ngo-2025 kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-152.7 ngo-2030. Phakathi kwabo, uhlelo lokuzijabulisa kwezimoto lubalele ku-60% noma ngaphezulu. I-hardware nesofthiwe ye-cockpit ehlakaniphile isiqalile ukuhluka.Izindleko zezingxenyekazi zekhompuyutha ezifana nesikrini ziyehla ngokukhula kwamakhono obunjiniyela, futhi inani lokuzijabulisa kwezimoto namanye amasofthiwe liyakhula ngemisebenzi enothile.Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesikhathi esizayo kufanele kugxile kubahlinzeki beSigaba 1 abanezinzuzo ezihlanganisiwe kanye nezinzuzo ezincintisanayo ku-hardware eyinhloko, isistimu yokusebenza/isofthiwe.

Emkhakheni we-cockpit ehlakaniphile, ama-oems, i-Tier1 yendabuko kanye neziqhwaga ze-inthanethi zisondela kubahlanganisi bohlelo lwe-Tier0.5.Umkhuba wesikhathi esizayo uhlanganisa ukuhlanganiswa nokuvuleka kwezinkundla eziningi, futhi inani kancane kancane lidluliselwa ku-software/algorithm, isicelo kanye nesevisi.Ukugxila kwamanje kubathengisi be-Tier 1 abanezinzuzo ezihlanganisiwe kanye nezinzuzo zokuncintisana ku-hardware eyinhloko kanye nesistimu yokusebenza/isofthiwe.

Inkampani eyinhloko embonini yasekhaya

Uhlelo olusebenzayo: Huawei, Ali, Zhongke Chuangda

Izihlanganisi zesistimu ye-multimedia host ye-Supcon: i-Desai Xiwei, i-Huayang Group, i-Hangsheng Electronics

Ukuzijabulisa kwezimoto: Baidu, Ali, Tencent, Huawei

Isibonisi (i-HUD/ ideshibhodi/isikrini sokulawula esimaphakathi) : I-Desai Xiwei, i-Huayang Group, i-Zejing Electronics

Abakhiqizi be-chip: Huawei, Horizon, Allambietion Technology

5.4 Ugesi ohlakaniphile: izinga lokungena likhuphuka ngokushesha ngaphansi komgomo wenqubomgomo.Kunconywa ukuthi unake amathuba okutshala imali embonini yezimakethe ezikhulayo njengenqwaba yokushaja kanye ne-semi-conductor yamandla emoto.

“Amandla kagesi amathathu” ayingxenye eyinhloko yezimoto ezisebenza ngamandla amasha ukuhlukanisa izimoto zamafutha ezijwayelekile.Sibikezela ukuthi usayizi wemakethe wezimoto zabagibeli zaseChina "uhlelo lwamandla amathathu" luzofinyelela kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-95.7 ngo-2020, ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-268.5 ngo-2025 kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-617.9 ngo-2030, ngezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe elingaphezu kwama-20% ngo-2020-2030.

Kunconywa ukuthi unake amathuba okutshala imali ochungechunge lwezimakethe ezikhulayo njengenqwaba yokushaja kanye ne-semiconductor yamandla ezimoto.

Sikholelwa ukuthi isidingo sokuminyana kwamandla aphezulu kanye nokuvumelanisa kazibuthe unomphela kwezimoto zikagesi kukhuthaza uhlelo lokushayela ugesi ukuthi luhlanganiswe kakhulu, isidingo samadivayisi kagesi we-IGBT kanye ne-silicon carbide siyaqhubeka nokukhula, kanye namadivayisi kagesi ahlanganiswe kakhulu akhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kokupholisa. uhlelo.Ngaphezu kwamabhethri, iHuawei inesakhiwo esijulile kuzo zonke izixhumanisi eziyinhloko zikagesi ohlakaniphile, nakuba izinkampani ezifuywayo nezihlobene zakha ubudlelwano bokuncintisana, kodwa esigabeni sokuqala sokuthuthukiswa kwemboni, imakethe ikude kakhulu nokugcwala, abatshalizimali kufanele bakhokhe. ukunakwa okwengeziwe ekwandeni okusheshayo kwamathuba okungena embonini.

Inkampani eyinhloko embonini yasekhaya

Inqwaba yokushaja: Ibhethri le-Telai Electric: I-Ningde Times, BYD

I-IGBT: Igayidi yenkanyezi, BYD

I-silicon carbide: i-Shandong Tianyue, i-SAN 'i-photoelectric

Ukuphathwa okushisayo: Ukulawula okuhlakaniphile kwe-Sanhua

5.5 Inethiwekhi ehlakaniphile: Isitayela sokufakwa ngaphambili kwe-inthanethi Yezimoto, imojula kanye ne-T-box yezinkampani ezincane neziphakathi zingase zibhodloze

Sikholelwa ukuthi imojula esebhodini, imojula yesango kanye ne-T-box kuyizingxenye eziyinhloko zemoto ukuze kufezeke umsebenzi wokuxhumana ebhodini.Ngokwezibalo, indawo yenani lemakethe yezimoto zabagibeli baseShayina yokuxhumana ngamabhayisikili esikhathini esizayo izofinyelela ku-27.6 billion yuan ngo-2025 kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-40.8 ngo-2030. Phakathi kwazo, imojula yemoto kanye ne-T-box yeminyaka eyi-10 izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe ku-10. %.

Amathuba Okutshala imali: Ama-chips asewumdlalo wabafana abakhulu, ama-mods kanye nama-T-boxes enza kube nokwenzeka ukuthi izinkampani ezincane ziqhamuke.

Ama-chips asewumdlalo wabafana abakhulu, futhi sikhona isikhala sokuthi abadlali abancane babhodloze kuma-mods nama-T-box.Emkhakheni wama-chips okuxhumana namamojula, iziqhwaga zendabuko zama-chip mobile ezifana ne-Qualcomm ne-Huawei zisengabadlali abakhulu.Umgoqo wokuncintisana we-chip uphakeme, umvuzo uphana kakhulu, umdondoshiya usazogxila ku-chip isikhathi eside, imojula ye-chip izobe izisebenzisa yona noma izohlinzeka ngamakhasimende asezingeni eliphezulu.Ngakho-ke, asekhona amathuba okuba abakhiqizi bemojula ye-chip bendabuko bagqame kulo mkhakha.

Inkampani eyinhloko embonini yasekhaya

Imojula yokuxhumana: ukuxhumana okukude, ukuxhumana okubanzi

T-box: Huawei, Desai Ciwei, Gao Xinxing

5.6 Isevisi yefu yemoto: Ithemba lesevisi yamafu emoto libanzi.Ngesevisi yesitaki esigcwele, iHuawei kulindeleke ukuthi ibambe iqhaza

UHuawei usephuzile kakhulu emkhakheni wezinsizakalo zamafu ezimoto.Ihlinzeka ikakhulukazi ngamasevisi amafu ezimoto ezinenqwaba ekhuphukayo, okungukuthi ukushayela okuzenzakalelayo, ukunemba okuphezulu kwemephu, i-inthanethi Yezimoto kanye ne-V2X.Ngokuzayo, kulindeleke ukuthi ihole ekuthambekeni kwamafu amaningi kanye ne-hybrid enezinzuzo ezigcwele zesitaki zokuphela-kuya-kupheleni.

Ama-giants obuchwepheshe basekhaya nabangaphandle bangena enkonzweni yamafu emoto, amafu amaningi, ifu le-hybrid nezinye izitayela, eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo kunesikhala esikhulu sokukhula, abalingani bochungechunge lwezimboni kulindeleke ukuthi bafinyelele ukukhula okuvamile ngesevisi yefu yemoto yeHuawei.Kuphakanyiswa ukubamba amathuba okutshalwa kwezimali kozakwethu bemboni yesevisi ye-Huawei kusukela ekwakhiweni kwengqalasizinda, idatha kuye kuhlelo lokusebenza kanye nesevisi ngokuya ngokulandelana kokudlulisa kochungechunge lwenani.

Inkampani eyinhloko embonini yasekhaya

Abalingani bengqalasizinda ye-ICT: GDS, IHUalu, China Software International, Digital China, njll.

Ozakwethu bezwi abahlakaniphile: IFlytek, njll.

Ozakwethu bemephu enembe kakhulu: imephu enezinhlangothi ezine entsha, njll.

Ozakwethu Be-inthanethi Yezimoto: I-Shanghai Botai, njll.

Ozakwethu bohlelo lokusebenza lwemoto: Bilibili, Uhambo olufanayo, Deep Love listen, Gedou, njll.

5.7 Amathuba okutshala imali ungaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi kubanikazi bezimoto ezihlakaniphile

Igama elithi “Intelligent” igama elingukhiye eliwumgogodla kanye nomugqa oyinhloko wokutshalwa kwezimali kwethu enkathini yezimoto ezihlakaniphile.Ngaphakathi komugqa oyinhloko wabahlakaniphile, sikholelwa ukuthi ijubane eliphelele lokutshalwa kwezimali ezimotweni ezihlakaniphile lidinga ukubamba amagagasi amathathu.

Igagasi lokuqala, i-supply chain.Sinethemba lokukhula kochungechunge lokuthengwa kwempahla lwase-China esikhathini sezimoto ezihlakaniphile, futhi singawabamba amathuba okutshala imali avela ezindaweni ezintathu.Okokuqala, amathuba okwanda kwembulunga yonke.Kwezinye izingxenye ezinjengamabhethri, amakhamera, amamojula enethiwekhi kanye nemishini yokuxhumana yezimoto, izinkampani eziholayo zasekhaya zinamandla okwanda emhlabeni jikelele.Uma usungenile ochungechungeni lokunikezela nge-OEM oluyisisekelo lomhlaba wonke, isikali singanwetshwa ngokushesha.Okwesibili ukwakhiwa kwendawo yokushintshwa kwamathuba, kwezinye izingxenye ezifana ne-IGBT yemoto, i-MCU, i-radar ye-millimeter-wave, ukuphathwa kwe-thermal, ukulawulwa ngocingo, njll., ezinye izinkampani zasekhaya ngokuphindaphinda nokuthuthukiswa kulindeleke ukuthi zicekele phansi kancane kancane isabelo semakethe sokushintshwa kweziqhwaga zaphesheya kwezilwandle esikhathini esizayo.Okwesithathu, ithuba lokushintshwa kwesekethe entsha, kwezinye izingxenye ezifana neplathifomu yekhompiyutha, i-lidar, imephu enembayo ephezulu, imishini yamandla e-silicon carbide, ukungena kanye nokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe obusha kusanda kuqala, ngokuguqulwa kwamabhizinisi azimele ohlobo lwezimoto kanye ukwanda kwamandla amasha ekwakhiweni kwezimoto zasekhaya, kulindeleke ukuthi kudale ingxenye entsha yomholi womhlaba.

Igagasi lesibili: ama-oems nabahlinzeki bezixazululo zokushayela ezizimele. Izimoto ezihlakaniphile zihlinzeka ngamathuba ezinkampanini zezimoto zaseShayina ukuthi zishintshe imizila futhi zidlule izimoto.Lezo zinkampani ezihlulekayo ukujwayela umkhuba wezimoto ezihlakaniphile zizoqedwa.Lo mzuliswano wokushova usanda kuqala, futhi kusesekuseni kakhulu ukwahlulela ukuthi ubani owinile.Singabona kuphela umkhondo lapho izinga lokungena kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla e-China lifinyelela ku-20% ngo-2025. I-oEMS izohlukaniswa ngamakamu amabili.Iningi lamandla amasha kanye nabanye abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bendabuko bazokhetha imodi yokuhlanganisa eqondile futhi bathuthukise isoftware ewumongo kanye nehadiwe ethile ngokwabo.Iningi labakhiqizi bezimoto bendabuko bazohlinzeka ngamakhono okukhiqiza nokuhlanganisa, futhi basebenze eduze nezikhondlakhondla ze-ICT ezifana neHuawei kanye ne-Waymo abangcweti kobuchwepheshe bokushayela obuzinzile obugcwele isitaki esigcwele.Abahlinzeki bezixazululo ze-oems abasafufusa kanye nabazimele, okuzothatha ingxenye enkulu yenzuzo yale mboni, bazoba abawine abakhulu kuleli gagasi.

Igagasi lesithathu, izicelo kanye nezinsizakalo.Ngokuthandwa kwengqalasizinda yokubambisana phakathi kwezimoto nomgwaqo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezinga elihlakaniphile lamabhayisikili, imakethe yezentengiselwano ye-L4 yezimoto zabagibeli, isevisi ye-Robotaxi ingena ekusebenzeni kwesilinganiso, futhi izicelo nezinsizakalo ezisekelwe ezimweni zokushayela ezizimele ziqala ukuqhuma.Abahlinzeki bengqalasizinda yokushayela abazimele, izinkampani zesevisi yokuhamba, kanye ne-inthanethi ephathwayo yezicelo zezimoto kanye nabahlinzeki benkundla yesevisi kuzoba okugxilwe kakhulu kwegagasi lesithathu lokutshalwa kwezimali.

Sinethemba lokuthi uHuawei kulindeleke ukuthi agcwalise igebe lasekhaya futhi abe umphakeli omusha we-ICT Tier1 ongu-$50 billion eceleni kweBosch kanye neChina Mainland. Ngaphezu kwezixhumanisi ezimbalwa ezifana nokukhiqizwa kwezimoto, ibhethri, irada ye-ultrasonic, umshini wolwazi wezimoto nezinye ihadiwe enenani eliphansi, i-Huawei inesakhiwo cishe kuzo zonke izixhumanisi eziyinhloko zokushayela okuhlakaniphile.

Sikholelwa ukuthi ukubamba iqhaza kukaHuawei kuzothuthukisa ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni zokushayela okukhaliphile, uchungechunge lwemboni yokushayela ehlakaniphile ekusebenzisaneni kwebhodi elide, izinkampani zokubambisana zamandla ahambisanayo kulindeleke ukuthi zibe ngezokuqala ukuzuza.Njenge-oEMS changan, amandla amasha e-Baic, ibhethri elihamba phambili izikhathi ze-Ningde, abakhiqizi bemephu abanembe kakhulu, njengemephu entsha enezinhlangothi ezine.

Emikhakheni uHuawei angenile noma ayibeke, efana ne-lidar, ipulatifomu yekhompiyutha, i-IGBT nezinye izingxenye, ngenxa yokungena kwemboni ephansi noma ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kusanda kuqala, indawo yemakethe ye-TAM inkulu ngokwanele, nezinye izinkampani eziye zabeka. ngaphandle kule mikhakha basenawo amathuba amahle okutshala imali.Ngokuvamile, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi ukungena kukaHuawei emkhakheni wezimoto ezihlakaniphile kusesesigabeni sokuqala, kukhona izinga eliphezulu lokungaqiniseki mayelana nokuthi ubani ozohlomula kubalingani bochungechunge lwezimboni nokuthi bazozuza kangakanani, futhi ukulandelela okuqhubekayo okunamandla kuyadingeka esizayo.

I-Huawei igxile ekushayeleni okuhlakaniphile, i-cockpit ehlakaniphile, inethiwekhi ehlakaniphile, ugesi ohlakaniphile, nezinsizakalo zamafu ezimoto, okuyizimakethe ezikhulayo ezibaluleke kakhulu ezilethwa izimoto ezihlakaniphile esikhathini esizayo.Silinganisela ukuthi inani eliphelele lemakethe yemakethe yezimoto zabagibeli yaseChina lizokhula lisuka kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-200 ngo-2020 liye kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.8 ngo-2030, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esiyinhlanganisela seminyaka eyi-10 esingu-25%.Isilinganiso senani lamabhayisikili alethwe ukuxhumana okuhlakaniphile lizokhuphuka lisuka kumayuan angu-10,000 liye kumayuan angu-70,000. Ngokombono wesakhiwo, ugesi ohlakaniphile wesikhathi esizayo, ukushayela okuhlakaniphile, izinsizakalo zamafu emoto zizobala ngaphezu kwe-90%.Njengamanje, ingxenye ephakeme kakhulu kagesi ohlakaniphile ngaphezu kuka-45%, ukushayela okuhlakaniphile kuzoba sesikhathini esimaphakathi, inani lika-2025 libalwe cishe ngama-31%.Okwamanje, inani lemakethe lezinsizakalo zamafu ezimoto alikakaveli, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele ku-12% ngo-2025 kanye nama-30% ngo-2030.

Phakathi kwemikhakha emihlanu eshiwo ngenhla, abatshalizimali bayelulekwa ukuthi bagxile ezingxenyeni ezinezikhala ezinkulu ezikhulayo kanye nenani lebhayisikili eliphakeme, njengebhethri, i-lidar, i-computing platform, i-IGBT, imephu kanye nomhlinzeki wesevisi yesofthiwe, kanye nemodyuli yenethiwekhi yemoto.

Imboni yezokushayela ezizimele emhlabeni wonke isesikhathini sokukhula ngokushesha.Ukusatshalaliswa kwenani kochungechunge lwezimboni kuzosuka ku-supply chain kuye kubakhiqizi bezixazululo zokushayela ezihlakaniphile, ama-oems, kanye nezimakethe zohlelo lokusebenza kanye nezinsizakalo ngokulandelana.Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi kugxilwe kokulandelayo:
Ukushayela okuhlakaniphile: I-Santy Optics/Weil (ikhamera yemoto), i-Hexai Technology/Radium Intelligence/Sagitar Juchuang (liDAR), i-Huawei/Horizon (inkundla yekhompyutha), i-Bethel (ukulawula umugqa)

I-cockpit ehlakaniphile: i-huawei/ali/kechuang (isistimu yokusebenza), ubuchwepheshe be-huawei/horizon/chi (chip) ugesi ohlakaniphile: i-ningde age/byd (ibhethri), kufika kuhhafu wegayidi/byd (IGBT), shandong days yue/ntathu i-AnGuang kagesi (sic ), ukulawulwa kobuhlakani bezimbali ezintathu (ukuphatha okushisayo), (shayela) izinqwaba zokushaja ezihlakaniphile ezenziwe: I-Yuyuan/Fibocom (imojula yokuxhumana), iHuawei/Desesiwei/Gao Xinxing (T-Box)

Amasevisi e-Vehicle Cloud: I-GDS/China Software International (uzakwethu wengqalasizinda ye-ICT), Imephu engu-4d Elisha (Imephu Enembayo Ephakeme)

Okuhlosiwe okuyisithupha

I-5G: I-China Mobile/China Telecom/China Unicom (opharetha), i-ZTE (umthengisi omkhulu wemishini), Zhongji Xuchuang/Xinyisheng (imojula yokubona), i-Shijia Photon (i-optical chip), i-DreamNet Group (izindaba ze-5G)

Cloud Computing: Jinshan Cloud (IaaS), WANGUO Data/Baoxin Software/Halo New Network (IDC), Inspr Information (server), Kingdee International/User Network (SaaS)
I-inthanethi Yezinto: Ukuxhumana kwe-Yuyuan/Fibocom (imojula), Ukuxhumana kwe-Huweiwei (itheminali), i-Heertai/Topone (I-Smart Home), i-Hongsoft Technology (AIoT), i-China Satellite/Haig Communication/China Satcom/Hainengda (Satellite Internet of Things)

Izimoto ezihlakaniphile: I-Horizon (inkundla yekhompyutha), i-Sun-Yu Optics (i-optical perception), i-Hexai Technology (lidar), i-Star Semi-guidance (IGBT), i-Zhongke Chuangda (isistimu yokusebenza), i-Desai Xiwei (i-cockpit ehlakaniphile)

Isikhombisa.amathiphu engozini
Imodeli yebhizinisi ecacile ayikakakhiwa ibhizinisi le-5G 2C, futhi kuzothatha iminyaka engu-2-3 ukuze imboni ithuthukise isicelo sayo, futhi ukuzimisela kwabaqhubi ukusebenzisa imali ye-5G kungase kube ngaphansi kunalokho okulindelekile;
Ukukhula kwezindleko ezinkulu ze-ICP kuncipha, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kwebhizinisi lefu lomphakathi kungase kungahlangabezani nokulindelwe;Inqubekelaphambili yamabhizinisi efwini ayinjengokulindelekile, ukuncintisana komkhakha kuyakhula, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwebhizinisi kwe-IT kuncishiswe kakhulu;
Ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kwesofthiwe kuncane kunokulindelekile;Inombolo yoxhumo lwe-inthanethi Yezinto (iot) ayikhuli njengoba bekulindelekile, futhi uchungechunge lwezimboni lusasilele emuva;
Imboni yokushayela ehlakaniphile ayikhuli ngendlela elindelekile;
Izingozi zokwenyuka kwezingxabano zezohwebo phakathi kweChina ne-United States.